Doncaster Rovers1-3Middlesbrough

Doncaster Rovers host Middlesbrough at Club Doncaster Sports Village in the EFL Cup Round of 64. The model gives Middlesbrough a 58.8% win probability and projects a 0-1 scoreline. Doncaster's recent home form shows no goals in their last three games.

Doncaster have no league table data available for this season. In their last three home games they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, averaging 0 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. Their last five matches overall read DLDLL, with an average of 0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. They come into this on a short three-day turnaround.

Middlesbrough also have no league table data for the current season. Over their last 20 away games they have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, scoring 1.55 and conceding 1.45 per game. Their recent five-match sequence is LWWDL, averaging 1.4 goals each way. They also have three days of rest after their last fixture.

There are no prior meetings between Doncaster and Middlesbrough on record. With no head-to-head history, the model has nothing to lean on for this fixture.

Doncaster's home form is poor: no wins in their last three at Club Doncaster Sports Village, with no goals scored. Middlesbrough's away record over 20 games is more balanced, with seven wins and six draws. The venue may matter less than the gap in attacking production.

Both sides are on a congested three-day turnaround after playing on 22 August. Doncaster have failed to score in their last three home games, while Middlesbrough average 1.55 goals away. With no league context and a cup tie, the model relies primarily on recent form and venue splits.

The Poisson model gives Middlesbrough a 58.8% win probability, with a 35.8% draw and 5.4% for Doncaster. The projected score is 0-1, and the most likely individual scorelines are 0-1, 0-0 and 0-2. Total goals are expected at 1.17, with only a 32.8% chance of two or more. The margin distribution shows an away win by one goal at 34.1% and by two or more at 24.6%, with the model's confidence rated medium.

The data points to a low-scoring Middlesbrough win, with the away side given the highest probability in every major outcome. Doncaster's home scoring struggles make an upset unlikely, and the model's most likely scorelines are 0-1 and 0-0. This projection would be most wrong if Doncaster's recent scoring drought ends immediately, but the away side's superior away record and attacking output are hard to ignore.