Deportivo Garcilaso4-1Cusco

This Round 6 fixture pairs Deportivo Garcilaso against Cusco at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. The model installs the hosts as overwhelming favourites, giving them a 95.2% win probability, while the visitors sit at 0.9%.

No league-table data is available for Deportivo Garcilaso, but their recent form reads DWWWL, averaging one goal scored and 0.4 conceded per match. At home across their last two matches they have two wins, scoring an average of two goals and conceding 0.5.

Cusco have no league-table data either, and their last two away matches both ended in defeat, with an average of one goal scored and 2.5 conceded. Overall their last five matches show a 2.4 goals-per-game scoring rate, but that production has not carried into away results.

There are no prior meetings between these two sides on record. The sample is too small to draw any head-to-head conclusions.

Deportivo Garcilaso's home form is a perfect two wins from two, while Cusco have lost both away matches in the data. The contrast in home and away results is the sharpest split this fixture offers.

Both sides have had a standard week between matches, with Garcilaso on seven days' rest and Cusco on nine. The away side's recent overall scoring average suggests they can create chances, but their away defensive numbers are weak, and the model rates its confidence as medium.

The Poisson model gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 95.2% win probability, with the draw at 3.8% and a Cusco win at 0.9%. It projects a 3-0 scoreline from expected goals of 3.99 and 0.33, with about 4.32 total goals expected; the probability of at least two goals is 92.7%. The model also puts an 85.3% chance on the hosts winning by two or more, while both teams scoring sits at just 27.5%.

The data points toward a commanding home victory, with the projected scoreline and margin both heavily favouring Garcilaso. That picture would be wrong if Cusco's recent scoring form translates into away goals, but their away record and the model's projections make that a remote possibility.