Deportivo de A Coruña3-1Valencia

Deportivo de A Coruña host Valencia in a round-three La Liga fixture at Estadio Abanca-Riazor. The two sides have no prior meetings on record, and the model gives the home side a 45.1% win probability, with a 29.3% chance of a draw and 25.5% for Valencia.

Deportivo sit 10th in the current La Liga table with two draws from two games, scoring and conceding two. Their last five matches read DDLWD, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home over their last 20 matches they have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, with 1.35 scored and 1.15 conceded per game.

Valencia's league numbers come from the 2025-2026 season, when they took 49 points from 38 games and finished ninth, with the division's second-ranked defence and 17th-ranked attack. Their last five matches read LDLDW, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Away from home across their last 20 matches they have won 6, drawn 5 and lost 9, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.65 conceded.

No prior meetings between these clubs are on record, so there is no head-to-head history to lean on. This fixture is effectively a blank slate.

Deportivo's home sample shows a 50% win rate (10 wins in 20), a sharp contrast to their winless start to this season, though that start covers just two games. Valencia's away form is weaker than their overall record: a 30% away win rate versus 34.2% overall in the sample, with 1.65 away goals conceded per game versus 1.45 overall.

Rest days are close, with Deportivo having six days since their last match and Valencia five. Valencia's recent schedule has been tougher by average opponent rank (10.0 versus 13.3 for Deportivo). Because Valencia's table and averages come from last season, projections for them carry additional uncertainty.

The model, run with high confidence, projects a 1-0 home win with expected goals of 1.24 to 0.85, and the most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 at 15.3%. It expects around 2.1 total goals, with a 61.7% chance of at least two goals and a 40.7% chance that both sides score. On margins, a draw is the single most likely category at 29.3%, but the combined home-win share across one-goal and two-goal-plus margins is 45.1%.

The data points to a narrow home advantage, with Deportivo's solid home record and the model's projected one-goal edge outweighing Valencia's strong defensive rating from last season. A draw remains a live possibility given the 29.3% probability. The projection would be undermined if Valencia's last-season defensive solidity proves more resilient than the model expects, or if Deportivo's early-season form over two matches is not representative.