Deportivo Cuenca0-0Mushuc Runa

Deportivo Cuenca welcome Mushuc Runa to Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar with both sides level on rest after six days. The model strongly favors the visitors, giving Mushuc Runa a 64.9% win probability and a projected 0-1 scoreline.

Deportivo Cuenca come into this round on a run of one win in their last five, with recent results reading LLLWL. Over that span they have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match.

Mushuc Runa's last five outings show a more stable pattern at DWWLD, averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. Away from home over their last three matches they are unbeaten with two wins and a draw.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides, so this fixture has no head-to-head history to lean on.

Cuenca's home form over the last two matches is even at one win and one loss, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Mushuc Runa's away form over three matches is stronger, averaging two goals scored and 0.67 conceded.

Both teams have had the same six-day rest, so scheduling is neutral. The model's projections carry medium confidence, and with a newly relevant away side in strong form, the gap in recent performance is the clearest signal.

The Poisson model gives Mushuc Runa a 64.9% chance of winning, with a draw at 20.7% and a home win at 14.3%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 12.3%, and the model expects about 2.78 total goals, with a 76.5% chance of at least two goals. The winning-margin projection is clearly tilted: Mushuc Runa by two or more is at 40%, while a home win by two or more is just 4.2%.

The data points firmly toward an away win, with Mushuc Runa's recent form and the model's margin projections both favoring them. A home upset would require Cuenca to outperform their recent scoring output, but the model's low home-win probability makes that an unlikely route.