Deportivo Alavés3-0Castellón

This pre-season friendly at Estadio de Mendizorroza opens the 2026 calendar for Deportivo Alavés, who have not played since 2026-05-23 — a break of 69 days. Castellón arrive on a much shorter turnaround, having played on 2026-07-29. The model gives Alavés a 40.3% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, though the projected scoreline is 1-1.

With no league table data for either side, the analysis rests on recent form and home/away splits. Alavés' home record over the last 20 matches stands at 7 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while Castellón's away record over the same sample is 6 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses. The gap between the two sides is narrow.

Alavés closed last season with a five-match run of LWWDL, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. That sequence ended on 2026-05-23, and the club have not played since.

Across their last 20 home matches, Alavés own a 35% win rate, with 7 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses. Their per-game averages at home are 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. With no match for 69 days, this friendly represents their first outing of the new season, and that layoff is a significant variable in how quickly they can reach their usual level.

Castellón's most recent five matches produced a DLDWW form line, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. That run ended with a match on 2026-07-29, leaving just two days of recovery before this fixture.

Away from home over the last 20 matches, Castellón have 6 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 per game. The draw has been the most common result in that sample, appearing in 9 of the 20 matches. Their 30% away win rate is slightly below Alavés' home rate.

There are no prior meetings between Deportivo Alavés and Castellón on record. With an empty head-to-head history, there is no previous result to use as a reference point.

The absence of shared fixtures means all context for this match comes from each side's recent form and the statistical model's projection. The two teams have never faced each other in any recorded competition, so this fixture will establish the first entry in their series.

Estadio de Mendizorroza has seen Alavés produce a 35% win rate across their last 20 home matches, with 7 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses. Their home scoring and conceding averages are both 1.3 per game, indicating tight, evenly balanced contests.

Castellón's away numbers over the same stretch show a 30% win rate from 6 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 per game. Draws are the most frequent outcome in that sample. The home side's win rate is modestly higher, and that advantage aligns with the model's designation of Alavés as the most likely winner.

The scheduling contrast is the most prominent factor. Alavés have had 69 days between matches, making this a true season opener. Castellón are playing two days after their last match, a congested turnaround that gives them limited recovery time.

The model's confidence is rated as medium, a reflection of the limited data: neither side has a league table record in the sample, and there is no head-to-head history. These gaps introduce additional uncertainty beyond the usual Poisson variance.

Recent scoring rates differ as well: Alavés averaged 1.2 goals per game in their last five, while Castellón averaged 1.8. Castellón also conceded more in that stretch, 1.6 per game versus Alavés' 1.4, which helps explain why the model's expected goals are close but not identical.

The model gives Alavés a 40.3% chance of winning, a 26.6% chance of drawing, and a 33.1% chance of losing. The home win is therefore the single most likely outcome, though it falls short of a majority.

The projected scoreline, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Alavés and 1.20 for Castellón, is 1-1. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%, followed by 1-0 at 10.5% and 0-1 at 9.3%. These are not contradictory: the probability mass of all possible home-win scorelines exceeds that of all draw scorelines.

With medium confidence, the model's probabilities carry a meaningful range. The combination of a long layoff for one side and a short turnaround for the other, along with the absence of prior meetings, keeps the outcome more uncertain than the raw percentages might suggest.

The available data points to a home win as the most probable result, with a 40.3% probability. That leaves roughly 59.7% of the outcome distribution on a draw or Castellón victory, so the edge is real but not overwhelming.

The prevalence of draws in both teams' relevant splits, and the model's 1-1 projected scoreline, suggest a closely matched contest is the central expectation. Alavés' 69-day layoff and Castellón's two-day turnaround are the two biggest question marks.

If the model is wrong, the likely causes would be Alavés taking time to settle after the break, or Castellón extending their recent scoring run despite the short recovery window. Either could shift the result toward a draw or an away win. As it stands, a home victory is the model's strongest single outcome in a balanced fixture.