Deportes Recoleta1-3O'Higgins

Copa Chile's sixth round brings Deportes Recoleta and O'Higgins together at Estadio Municipal de Recoleta. The model makes the home side the clear favorite, with a 59.2% win probability and a projected 2-1 scoreline. No prior meetings are on record, so this tie starts without any head-to-head precedent.

Deportes Recoleta won two of their last three home matches, averaging two goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Their overall recent run is WDWDL, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and one conceded per match. They last played on 22 August and arrive with five days of rest.

O'Higgins have one win, one draw and one loss in their last three away games, scoring and conceding 1.33 goals per match. Their last five matches read LDLWW, with a 1.2 scoring average and 1.4 goals conceded. They played on 23 August, leaving a four-day turnaround flagged as congested.

No prior meetings between Deportes Recoleta and O'Higgins are on record. With such a small sample, there is no head-to-head pattern to draw on for this fixture.

Deportes Recoleta's home form is the standout split: a 66.7% win rate and exactly two goals scored per match in their last three home outings. O'Higgins' away numbers are balanced, with one win, one draw and one loss and matching 1.33 scoring and conceding averages.

The congested schedule is the main factor separating the sides: O'Higgins face a four-day turnaround while Deportes Recoleta enjoy five days' rest. Neither club has league table data included here, so recent form and venue splits carry the model. The absence of any previous meetings also leaves room for uncertainty.

The model's most likely outcome is a Deportes Recoleta win at 59.2%, projecting a 2-1 scoreline with 2-1, 1-1 and 2-0 as the most likely exact scorelines. Confidence is medium. Total goals are projected at about 3.3, with an 84% chance of at least two goals and a 60.7% chance both teams score. The margin distribution favors the home side, with a 36.5% chance of winning by two or more and a 22.7% chance of a one-goal win.

The data points to a Deportes Recoleta win, underpinned by their home scoring output and the model's 59.2% projection. O'Higgins' congested schedule and balanced away numbers give the home side a clear edge. The projection would be wrong if O'Higgins produce an away win in line with their 20.3% probability.