Deportes IquiquevsSan Luis de Quillota

This Round 23 Primera B fixture sees Deportes Iquique host San Luis de Quillota at Estadio Tierra de Campeones. Iquique arrive unbeaten in five matches and the model makes them the most likely winner at 43.4%, although its projected scoreline is 0-0 on modest expected goals.

Deportes Iquique have lost none of their last five league games, recording three wins and two draws with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. At home in their last four they are unbeaten as well, with three wins and a draw, scoring 2.25 and conceding 0.5 per match.

San Luis de Quillota have one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five, averaging one goal scored and 0.8 conceded. In their last two away matches they are unbeaten with a win and a draw, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per match.

No prior meetings between these clubs are on record, so head-to-head history offers no signal for this fixture. The absence of past matchups makes the model's job harder and the sample is too small to lean on any historical edge.

Iquique's home numbers reflect a strong side: 2.25 scored and 0.5 conceded per match in a four-game sample. San Luis's two away matches also show solid balance, with a similar defensive record, though the sample is even smaller.

Both sides have had a full week off, with Iquique having eight days since their last outing and San Luis six. No league table data was provided for the current season, and with zero prior meetings the model relies on this season's form splits only.

The model gives Iquique a 43.4% win probability, a draw 37.2%, and San Luis 19.4%, with medium confidence. It projects about 1.39 total goals, implying a 59.5% chance of fewer than two goals and a 23.1% chance that both sides score. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 24.9%, with 1-0 at 22.3% and 0-1 at 12.3%. Although a draw is the most common single-margin outcome (37.2%), Iquique's combined home-win probability makes them the narrow favorite.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring match in which Iquique hold a modest edge. The medium confidence and the lack of head-to-head history leave room for a draw or a one-goal away win, both of which the model assigns meaningful probability. A decisive result for either side would contradict the model's expectation of a close contest.