Dallas Wings97-71Connecticut Sun

Dallas Wings host Connecticut Sun at College Park Center on August 31. The model projects a 66.1% win probability for the home side, backed by a 14-6 home record in their last 20 games in Arlington. Connecticut have lost 15 of their last 20 away games, setting up a clear contrast in form.

Dallas have won 14 of their last 20 home games, averaging 86.25 points scored and 78.3 conceded. Their last five outings have produced three wins and two losses, with an average of 82.4 points per game.

Connecticut have won just five of their last 20 away games, averaging 74.1 points scored and 84.1 conceded. Their last five outings, three wins and two losses, have come with a 45.0 scoring average and 45.6 against — well below their broader road numbers.

Dallas have won four of the five recorded meetings against Connecticut, including the most recent 83-63 home victory on August 2. Connecticut's only win in that span came at Dallas in August 2025, 101-95. The five meetings have averaged 175.2 total points.

At College Park Center, the two meetings on record are split: Dallas won the latest 83-63, while Connecticut took a 101-95 decision in 2025. Dallas's 70% home win rate stands in sharp contrast to Connecticut's 25% away win rate.

Both sides have had five days of rest since their last match on August 26. Connecticut's recent scoring average of 45.0 is far below their 74.1 road norm, which helps explain the model's modest total-points projection. There are no short-turnaround or season-opening considerations in the data.

The normal-distribution model gives Dallas a 66.1% win probability, with a projected score of 67-62 and a margin of 4.7 points. Confidence is medium. The model expects about 128 total points, and the largest share of the margin distribution falls on a home win by 1-10 points (35.6%), with a home win by 11+ close behind at 30.5%. An away win by 1-10 is projected at 23.5%, while an away win by 11+ carries just 10.4%.

The data converges on a Dallas victory: strong home form, a favorable head-to-head record, and a 66.1% model probability. The projected margin is narrow, so a Connecticut win is not out of the question, especially if their scoring output returns to their road average. A result in the visitors' favor would likely require the model's expected total to be off by a wide margin.