Dalian K'un City3-2Nantong Zhiyun

Round 21 of the China League One season brings Dalian K'un City and Nantong Zhiyun together at Jinzhou Stadium, with no prior head-to-head meetings on record. The match model gives the draw a 38.8% probability, narrowly ahead of either side, and projects a 0-0 scoreline as the most likely exact finish. Both teams have had eight days of rest since their last outings.

Dalian K'un City's recent form reads one win, two draws, and two defeats in five matches, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. At home they are unbeaten in three, recording one win and two draws while averaging 1.33 goals scored and one conceded per game.

Nantong Zhiyun are unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across that stretch. Their last three away matches have produced one win and two draws, with just 0.67 goals conceded per game and an average of one scored.

No prior meetings between Dalian K'un City and Nantong Zhiyun are on record, so the head-to-head offers no basis for comparison. With an empty historical ledger, the model's probabilities rest entirely on recent form and venue splits.

At Jinzhou Stadium, Dalian K'un City have conceded exactly once per game in their last three home fixtures, while averaging 1.33 goals scored. Nantong Zhiyun's away numbers show similar solidity, conceding 0.67 per game and scoring once per game across their last three trips. Both sides have a 33.3% win rate in these venue splits.

Both sides have had eight days of rest since their last matches, so there is no scheduling edge. League table positions are not available for either team, and the absence of any prior meetings adds uncertainty. The model's medium confidence reflects this limited comparative information.

The Poisson model assigns a 38.8% probability to the draw, with 32.2% for a home win and 29% for an away win, and projects expected goals of 0.71 and 0.66 for a most likely 0-0 scoreline. Total goals are projected at 1.37 combined, with a 39.8% chance of two or more. The winning-margin distribution is tight—a one-goal margin either way is more likely than a two-goal margin—and the draw is the most common result. Model confidence is medium.

The data collectively points to a low-scoring, evenly matched encounter, with the draw the most probable result and 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline. For either side to secure a win, they would need to outperform the model's modest expected-goal totals of roughly 0.7 each. Given the defensive solidity both teams have shown in recent matches, that looks a demanding task, and the model's medium confidence in a close game is well placed.