Crystal Palace1-2Fulham

This is the first match of the 2026 season for both sides, a friendly at Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace and Fulham have not played competitively since May 24, a 75-day break, making this a true season opener. The head-to-head record favors Crystal Palace, who have won two of the four meetings. The model also favors the hosts, giving them a 53.7% win probability.

Crystal Palace's last 20 home matches produced 5 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses. They scored an average of 1.15 goals per game and conceded 1.25. The win rate at home is 25%, with a notably high number of draws. Across their last five matches in all contexts, Palace's form reads LDLDL (most recent first), with an average of 1 goal scored and 2.4 conceded per game. That run ended on May 24.

Fulham's last 20 away matches show 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses. They averaged 1 goal scored and 1.65 conceded per game, also a 25% win rate. Their recent form across five matches (most recent first) is WDLLW, with an average of 0.8 scored and 1 conceded. Fulham's last match was on May 24.

The two sides have met four times in the data. Crystal Palace's record is 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss; Fulham's is 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Palace have scored 5 goals to Fulham's 4. Three of the four meetings produced two or fewer total goals. The full results are: Jan 1, 2026 – Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham; Dec 7, 2025 – Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace; Feb 22, 2025 – Fulham 0-2 Crystal Palace; Nov 9, 2024 – Crystal Palace 0-2 Fulham.

This match takes place at Selhurst Park. Palace's home record over the last 20 games is 5W-9D-6L, with an average of 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Fulham's away record over the same span is 5W-5D-10L, scoring 1 and conceding 1.65 per match. In the two head-to-head matches at Selhurst Park, Fulham have a win and a draw, so Palace have not beaten Fulham at this venue in the available sample.

Both teams enter this match after a 75-day break, as their last competitive fixture was on May 24. This is a season opener, and with no recent competitive minutes, there is inherent uncertainty in projecting performance. The data used here comes from the previous season, and the model's confidence is medium, reflecting that uncertainty. Schedule congestion is not a factor for either side.

The model's win probabilities are 53.7% for Crystal Palace, 25.9% for the draw, and 20.4% for Fulham. The projected scoreline is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.52 for Palace and 0.83 for Fulham. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 at 14.6%, 1-1 at 12%, and 2-0 at 11.1%. The model's confidence is medium, so while a home win is the most likely outcome, the probabilities are far from overwhelming.

The data collectively points to a narrow home win. Palace's head-to-head advantage, their home record, and the model's projections all favor them. However, Palace's home form is draw-heavy, and three of the four meetings between these sides have seen two or fewer goals, suggesting a low-scoring contest is plausible. A draw is a realistic alternative, given the 25.9% probability and the 9 draws in Palace's last 20 home matches. Fulham have avoided defeat in both recorded visits to Selhurst Park. If the match follows the pattern of those low-scoring meetings, a 1-0 home win is the model's most likely outcome, but the medium confidence means the result is genuinely uncertain.