Cremonese0-2Parma

This Coppa Italia round-of-32 tie brings together Cremonese and Parma at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Both sides have averaged no more than a goal per game in their respective splits, and the model gives the home side a 41.9% win probability against 22% for Parma. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0.

At home, Cremonese have won four, drawn six and lost ten of their last 20, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.45 conceded per game. Their recent five matches feature two losses, two draws and one win, with a scoring average of 0.6 per game.

Parma's away record over the same sample is six wins, six draws and eight losses, with 0.6 scored and 1.15 conceded per game. Their last five matches include one win, one draw and three losses, also averaging 0.6 goals scored.

Only two meetings are on record. Cremonese won one and drew the other, leaving Parma without a win in the fixture. Both games produced two or fewer total goals, averaging one per meeting.

Cremonese's home split shows a 20% win rate and 1.45 conceded per game, while Parma's away split shows a 30% win rate and 1.15 conceded. Parma still lose more often than they win on the road. Neither split points to a high-scoring occasion.

Both sides are on short turnarounds, Cremonese with four days of rest and Parma with three. No league table data is available for either club, and the two-meeting head-to-head sample is too small to lean on.

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is a Cremonese win at 41.9%, with the draw at 36.1% and Parma at 22%. It projects a 0-0 scoreline, reflecting expected goals of 0.91 and 0.57. Total goals are projected at about 1.49, with a 43.7% chance of at least two and a 26.1% chance that each side scores. The draw is the most likely margin at 36.1%, and one-goal margins account for 43.2% of the distribution. Model confidence is medium.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring cup match. Cremonese hold a modest statistical advantage, chiefly through a higher win probability and an unbeaten head-to-head record against Parma. A draw is nearly as likely as a home win, and the 0-0 projection underscores how little separates the sides; a more open game, with both teams scoring, would contradict that expectation.