Correcaminos UAT Victoria78-74Soles de Mexicali

Round 14 of the Mexican LNBP brings an immediate rematch: Correcaminos UAT Victoria host Soles de Mexicali one day after the sides met in Mexicali. Soles won that meeting 101-74, and the model gives them an 82% win probability in this second game. Both teams are playing on one day of rest.

Correcaminos have won only one of their last five home games, a 20% win rate, and have been outscored by an average of 4.2 points per game at home. Their recent overall form shows four losses in five, with the defense allowing 96.2 points per game in that stretch.

Soles de Mexicali have won all five of their most recent away games, averaging 91.2 points scored and 72 conceded. They enter on a five-match overall winning streak, including an 101-74 win over Correcaminos in the most recent meeting.

The two sides have met only once on record, with Soles winning 101-74 on 2026-08-25. With a single meeting, the head-to-head sample is too small to draw conclusions from, but the result does match the current form disparity.

Correcaminos have struggled at home, winning just one of five and conceding 89.6 points per game. Soles have been dominant on the road, winning all five away games by an average margin of 19.2 points, with 91.2 points scored and 72 conceded.

Both teams play on one day of rest, making this a congested fixture. The home side's recent form is poor, while the away side has won five straight. The model's medium confidence, along with the single prior meeting, adds some uncertainty.

The model gives Soles de Mexicali an 82% win probability, with a projected score of 93-83 and an expected margin of about 11 points. It projects roughly 176 total points. The margin distribution is heavily tilted toward the away side: Soles are projected to win by 11 or more in 50.7% of simulations, while a home victory occurs 18% of the time. The model's confidence is medium.

The data points decisively toward a Soles victory, with their undefeated road form, recent winning streak, and the model's 82% probability all pointing the same way. The most likely margin is double digits in the away side's favor. A closer game would likely require Correcaminos to significantly improve defensively on the 101 points they conceded in the previous meeting.