CórdobavsAlmería

This August 7 friendly at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel brings together Córdoba and Almería in a pre-season contest. The model gives the hosts a 50.3% win probability, with a draw at 25.5% and an away win at 24.1%. The projected scoreline is 1-0, and 1-0 is also the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3%. Despite Almería's dominant head-to-head record, the underlying numbers point to a tight, low-scoring contest with Córdoba holding the edge.

Córdoba's home record over the last 20 matches shows 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, a 40% win rate. They average 1.25 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per home game. Their recent form has been less productive: in the last five matches they have recorded just one win (DDLLW), scoring 0.6 goals per game while conceding 1. Their last match was on July 23, giving them 15 days of rest before this friendly.

Almería's away record over the last 20 matches is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, a 25% win rate. They score an average of 1.25 goals per away game but concede 1.55. In their last five matches, they have one win, two draws and two losses (LLDWD), averaging 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded. Their most recent match was on July 29, nine days before this fixture.

The two sides have met four times in the records provided. Almería have won three of those meetings and drawn one, while Córdoba have yet to win. The aggregate score stands at 10-2 in Almería's favour, an average of three goals per meeting. Only one of the four matches produced two or fewer total goals. The full results are: Almería 2-1 Córdoba (2026-02-21), Córdoba 1-1 Almería (2025-10-19), Córdoba 0-3 Almería (2025-01-12), and Almería 4-0 Córdoba (2024-11-26).

Playing at home gives Córdoba a clear statistical edge. Their home win rate of 40% is well above Almería's away win rate of 25%. Both teams average the same number of goals scored (1.25) when these splits are compared, but Córdoba concede fewer at home (1.2 per game) than Almería concede on the road (1.55). That defensive difference is a key reason the model favors the hosts.

Rest appears to favor Córdoba: they have had 15 days since their last match, compared to Almería's 9. Both sides have been scoring at a modest rate recently, with Córdoba averaging 0.6 goals and Almería 1.0 over their last five. The head-to-head record, though lopsided in Almería's favor, rests on only four meetings and is a small sample. The model itself carries a medium confidence level, suggesting that while Córdoba are favorites, the outcome is far from certain.

According to the Poisson model, Córdoba have a 50.3% chance of winning, with a 25.5% probability of a draw and 24.1% for an Almería victory. The projected score is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.55 for the hosts and 0.99 for the visitors. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (12.1%) and 2-0 (9.5%). These figures indicate a low-scoring game, with a single-goal margin being the most probable outcome. The medium confidence rating reflects the model's assessment of uncertainty.

The data collectively points to a narrow Córdoba victory. Their home record is stronger than Almería's away record, and the model gives them a majority win probability. The projected scoreline is 1-0, and the expected goals total (2.54) suggests a low-scoring contest. The main counterweight is the head-to-head record, where Almería have won three of four meetings and scored ten goals. However, that record spans a small sample and includes a 3-0 away win at this venue. With medium confidence, a draw or away win cannot be discounted, particularly if Córdoba's recent scoring output of 0.6 per game persists.