Córdoba0-4Almería

This is a preseason friendly between Córdoba and Almería at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel. With no league table data available, the focus falls on recent home and away form and a four-match head-to-head series. The one number that stands out: the model gives Córdoba a 50.3% win probability despite Almería's dominance in past meetings.

Córdoba's last 20 home matches show 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, a 40% win rate. They average 1.25 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per home game. Their last five results across all fixtures read DDLLW, with an average of 0.6 scored and 1 conceded. The team's most recent match was on July 23, 15 days before this fixture.

Almería's away record over the same sample is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, a 25% win rate, with 1.25 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per match. Over their last five overall fixtures they have gone LLDWD, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded. Their last outing was on July 29, nine days before this meeting.

The head-to-head record contains four meetings. Córdoba have not won any, drawing one and losing three. Almería have won three and drawn one. The aggregate goals across these matches are 2 for Córdoba and 10 for Almería, an average of three per meeting. Only one of the four meetings produced two or fewer total goals. The four results are: Almería 2-1 Córdoba, Córdoba 1-1 Almería, Córdoba 0-3 Almería, and Almería 4-0 Córdoba. This is a small sample, so these numbers carry limited predictive weight.

Córdoba's home form shows a 40% win rate and an average of 2.45 total goals per home game (1.25 scored, 1.20 conceded). Almería's away games average 2.80 total goals (1.25 scored, 1.55 conceded). That suggests a match with moderate goal expectancy, although the model projects a lower-scoring affair, with expected goals of 1.55 for Córdoba and 0.99 for Almería. Córdoba's home win rate is double Almería's away win rate, a gap the model reflects.

This is a preseason friendly, so there is no league table data. The main quantitative inputs are the home/away splits and recent results. Córdoba have had 15 days of rest since their last match, compared to 9 for Almería. The model assigns medium confidence to its projections, meaning the probabilities come with meaningful uncertainty.

The Poisson model gives Córdoba a 50.3% chance of winning, with a 25.5% draw probability and 24.1% for an Almería win. The projected scoreline is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.55 for Córdoba and 0.99 for Almería. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 at 12.3%, 1-1 at 12.1%, and 2-0 at 9.5%. The model's confidence is medium, so the most likely outcome is a Córdoba win, but not by a wide margin.

The data collectively points to a narrow Córdoba victory. Their home record is modest but better than Almería's away record, and the model puts them as favourites despite the historical head-to-head going the other way. The projected 1-0 scoreline reflects an expectation of a low-scoring, tight game. However, the model's medium confidence and the small four-match head-to-head sample mean an Almería win or a draw would not be a major surprise. If the game follows the model's central projection, Córdoba's superior home win rate and Almería's higher away concession rate will be the deciding factors.