ChrudimvsBaník Most-Souš

Chrudim host Baník Most-Souš in the fourth round of the Bohemian Football League Group B, with the model making the home side a heavy favourite. Chrudim's 82% win probability dwarfs Baník's 6.9%, and the projected scoreline reads 3-0. The two sides have never met before, so this fixture offers no historical guide.

Chrudim have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and two conceded. At home, they have won two of their last three, scoring two per game and conceding 1.33 on average. Their last fixture took place on 23 August.

Baník Most-Souš are winless in their last four away matches, with one draw and three losses, scoring once and conceding twice per game on average. Their overall recent form shows one win, one draw and three losses in five, with a goal average of 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded. They last played on 16 August.

There are no prior meetings between Chrudim and Baník Most-Souš on record. With no head-to-head data available, the model relies entirely on current form and domestic splits.

Chrudim's home record is stronger than their overall recent form: a 66.7% home win rate versus 40% across all venues in their last five. Baník's away form is weaker than their overall numbers, with no wins in four away matches compared to one win in their last five overall. The venue appears to amplify the gap between the sides.

No league table data is available for either side, so this preview leans on recent form, home/away splits, and the model. Rest days favour the visitors, who have had 13 days since their last match compared to Chrudim's six. The model's medium confidence reflects the absence of head-to-head meetings and Baník's poor away record.

The model gives Chrudim an 82% win probability, with a draw at 11.2% and a Baník win at 6.9%. The projected score is 3-0, with expected goals of 3.19 for the home side and 0.88 for the away side. It expects roughly 4.07 total goals, with a 91.3% chance of at least two goals and a 56% chance that each side scores at least once. The winning margin distribution shows a 64.2% probability of Chrudim winning by two or more goals, against a 17.7% chance of a single-goal home win.

The data points to a comfortable home win, likely by a margin of two or more goals. Chrudim's strong home record and Baník's winless away run align with the model's strong home lean. The medium confidence, however, means an upset is not impossible — Baník's longer rest and the lack of head-to-head history leave some room for a tighter contest than the projected 3-0.