Chicago SkyvsLas Vegas Aces

This WNBA fixture pits the Chicago Sky against the Las Vegas Aces at Wintrust Arena, with both sides entering on one day's rest. The data available covers each team's recent home and away form plus five head-to-head meetings, but no current league table standings are included.

The model gives Chicago a 62.5% win probability and projects a 97-93 contest, a 3.6-point margin. That projection runs against the head-to-head record, where Las Vegas have won all five meetings. With both teams averaging well above 87 points in the relevant splits, the data points to a high-scoring and closely contested game.

Chicago Sky do not have a league record listed in the data, so their table position is unknown. At home, they have won 7 of their last 20 games, a 35% win rate, while averaging 87.35 points scored and 88.5 conceded.

In their last five games overall, Chicago have gone WLLWW — three wins and two losses — averaging 94 points scored and 89.6 conceded. That recent scoring rate is higher than their home average, suggesting the offense has been more productive lately.

Las Vegas Aces also have no league table data provided. Away from home, they have won 14 of their last 20 games, a 70% win rate, averaging 91.45 points scored and 86.15 conceded.

Their last five games overall show a W-L-W-L-W pattern — three wins and two losses — with an average of 97 points scored and 94.8 conceded. That puts their recent scoring at a higher level than their away average, though their defensive average also ticked up.

The five most recent meetings between these teams are all on record, and every one was won by Las Vegas. Chicago have scored 390 points across those games to Las Vegas's 456, an average total of 169.2 points per meeting. The average margin works out to 13.2 points in Las Vegas's favor.

Given the uniform results, the head-to-head strongly leans toward the road side in this matchup. The most recent meeting, on 4 July 2026, ended 98-90 in Las Vegas's favor, and the two sides also met twice in late August and early September of 2025.

Home and away splits tell a clear story. Chicago's last 20 home games have produced a 7-13 record, a 35% win rate, with an average of 87.35 points scored and 88.5 allowed. Las Vegas's last 20 away games show a 14-6 record, a 70% win rate, averaging 91.45 points scored and 86.15 allowed.

That split favors the visitors on paper: the Aces have a winning road record, while the Sky have a losing home record. Yet the model assigns Chicago the higher win probability, meaning the model does not treat the away side's road success as decisive.

Both teams are listed on a one-day turnaround, having last played on 31 July 2026. The congested schedule is a shared condition, and no data is provided on how either team typically performs on short rest.

No league table data is included, so the usual context of standings is absent. The main factors in the model are the team's recent results, home/away splits, and the head-to-head record. The head-to-head sample is only five games, but it is unanimous. The model's medium confidence suggests the projection should not be treated as a foregone conclusion.

The model, based on a normal-distribution margin approach, gives Chicago a 62.5% probability of winning and Las Vegas a 37.5% probability. It projects a 97-93 final score, with expected values of 96.9 and 93.3 points, for a margin of 3.6 points.

This is a medium-confidence projection. The expected total of roughly 190 points is consistent with the high scoring averages each side has posted in recent and split data, though the specific margin is narrow. The model's most likely outcome is a Chicago win, as stated above, but the 37.5% chance for Las Vegas means a road victory is a clear possibility.

The data collectively points to a close, high-scoring game with Chicago holding a modest edge in the model's probabilities. The home side's recent form is stronger than their longer-run home record, and the model reflects that improvement. However, the head-to-head record belongs entirely to Las Vegas, and their away record is strong.

The projection would be wrong if Las Vegas's road dominance repeats against Chicago, as it has in all five prior meetings. Conversely, if Chicago's recent scoring output holds up, they have a legitimate path to the projected win. The short rest for both teams adds uncertainty, and the lack of standings data leaves the broader context incomplete.