Chicago Sky94-88Connecticut Sun

Chicago Sky and Connecticut Sun will do it again on July 31, just hours after completing a 94-88 game at Wintrust Arena. The model now gives Chicago a 78.7% win probability for the immediate rematch.

Both teams are on zero days of rest, making this a congested fixture for both benches. No league table data is available, so the preview leans on recent form, split records, and the seven-game head-to-head history.

Chicago have won three of their last five games, with the most recent result a home win over Connecticut. Over that five-game span, they have averaged 94 points scored and 89.6 conceded.

No league table position is available. Over a longer stretch at home, the Sky have gone 7-13 in their last 20 games at Wintrust Arena, a 35% win rate, while averaging 87.35 points scored and 88.5 conceded. The model projects Chicago to score 96 in this game, above both their recent and home averages.

Connecticut have lost four of their last five, with the sole win coming five games ago. Their most recent outing is a 94-88 loss at Chicago.

On the road, the Sun are 5-15 in their last 20 away games, a 25% win rate, averaging 79.1 scored and 88.8 conceded. The model projects them to score 87 here, a significant step up from their road average, but still behind Chicago's projected 96.

Over seven recorded meetings, Chicago hold a 4-3 edge. The aggregate points are almost dead even: Chicago 554, Connecticut 555. Individual results have varied widely, from 5-point margins to 29-point blowouts.

The most recent meeting, played earlier today, ended 94-88 in favor of the home side. Chicago have won three of the last four meetings between these teams, including the last two at Wintrust Arena. The series has been high-scoring, averaging 158.4 total points per game.

Chicago's home splits show a 35% win rate with a -1.15 average margin. Connecticut's away splits show a 25% win rate with a -9.7 average margin. Those numbers line up with the model's projected home margin of 9.2 points.

The earlier meeting today at the same venue finished with a six-point Chicago win, slightly tighter than the model's current projection. The home side's scoring average at home is about eight points higher than the Sun's scoring average on the road.

The defining factor is the congested schedule. Both sides played a full game earlier on July 31, and this fixture starts the same day. Rest data flags both teams with zero days of rest, which adds uncertainty to any projection.

The head-to-head pattern is also notable: the series average of 158.4 total points is far lower than the model's projected total of 183. That gap suggests the model sees particular potential for offensive output on both sides.

The model assigns a 78.7% win probability to Chicago and 21.3% to Connecticut, projecting a 96-87 final score and a 9.2-point margin. Confidence is medium.

The projected total of 183 points is notably higher than the historical series average of 158.4. That is driven, at least in part, by the Sky's recent offensive output of 94 points per game over their last five, while the Sun's road average of 79.1 would need a considerable improvement to reach the model's 87-point expectation.

The data points clearly toward a Chicago win. The Sky won the earlier meeting, hold a winning head-to-head record, own the stronger home split, and are favored by the model with a 78.7% probability. The projected nine-point margin is consistent with those splits.

The 21.3% probability for Connecticut is not negligible, and the same-day back-to-back adds a scheduling wrinkle that the model's medium confidence rating reflects. The numbers favor the home side, but the compressed schedule is the main reason to treat the projection with some caution.