Chicago BullsvsPhoenix Suns

Chicago and Phoenix open the season at the United Center, both arriving after gaps of more than five months — 178 days for the Bulls, 163 for the Suns. Neither side has league-table data on record, so the read comes from recent splits and a four-game head-to-head sample. The model makes Chicago a 71.8% winner, projecting 120-114.

Chicago went 6-14 across their last 20 home games, averaging 114.9 points scored and 119.35 conceded — a minus-4.45 differential that sits alongside a 30% home win rate. The last five games ended 2-3, with scoring rising to 117.8 but conceding also up at 120.4. Those numbers date to mid-April; the long gap makes this a season opener, not a continuation of that run.

Phoenix's road split is the stronger of the two: 9-11 in their last 20 away games, scoring 111.7 and conceding 113.35. Their last five games produced one win, with scoring dropping to 106.6 while conceding rose to 117.4 — the widest negative differential either side carries into this fixture. Their most recent recorded game was 28 April, 163 days ago.

Four meetings are on record and Phoenix have won three, including both games played at the United Center. Chicago's single win came in Phoenix. The series has been high-scoring: 924 points across the four games, an average of 231, with the lowest-scoring meeting still reaching 208. Four meetings is a thin sample, but it is not a low-scoring fixture historically.

With no table data for either team, the home and away splits are the main reference point — and they point opposite to the model. Chicago's 30% home win rate sits well below Phoenix's 45% road win rate, and the Suns have won twice at this venue in the recorded meetings. That sample is too small to lean on heavily.

Both sides last played in April, so the 178- and 163-day gaps are comparable and neither carries a short turnaround into the opener. The model's confidence is rated medium. The head-to-head record is the only multi-game sample available and it is thin at four meetings; the splits carry more weight but were also compiled before the off-season break.

The model gives Chicago a 71.8% win probability and projects 120-114, a margin of 6.6 points, with roughly 234 combined points expected — just above the 231 average across the recorded meetings. The margin distribution is nearly split: 36.5% for a Chicago win by 11 or more and 35.3% for a Chicago win by 1-10, against 20% for a Phoenix win by 1-10 and 8.1% by 11 or more. Medium confidence is consistent with a projected margin inside single digits.

The model's edge rests with Chicago, but the season-level splits run the other way — Phoenix's 45% road win rate is the better figure, and the Suns have won three of the four recorded meetings. A Phoenix win is the clearest route to proving the projection wrong, and the narrow margin distribution leaves little cushion in either direction.