Chicago BullsvsMemphis Grizzlies

Chicago open their season at the United Center against a Memphis team that has already played a competitive game. Neither side has league-table data on record, so the read leans on each team's last 20 games in the relevant setting. The model makes Chicago an 84.6% favourite and projects a 118-106 scoreline, a 12-point margin, at medium confidence.

Chicago won 6 of their last 20 home games, a 30% rate, scoring 114.9 and conceding 119.35 across those fixtures, so they were outscored on their own floor. Their last five games produced two wins and three losses, with 117.8 scored and 120.4 conceded. This is a season opener after a 180-day gap since their last outing on 13 April.

Memphis won 4 of their last 20 away games, a 20% rate, averaging 108.95 points scored against 121.3 conceded — a differential of roughly minus 12 points per game. Their last five games brought one win and four losses, with scoring dropping to 90.8 per game while conceding 112.4. They played on 5 October, giving them five days since their most recent match.

Five meetings are on record, and Memphis lead the series 3-2. Combined scoring has been heavy: 1,255 points across the five games, an average of 251 per meeting. Three of the five were decided by three points or fewer, while the widest margin was 25.

The two splits are similarly unfavourable, with Chicago at a 30% home win rate and Memphis at 20% on the road. Adding Chicago's home scoring average to Memphis's away scoring average gives roughly 224 combined points, close to the model's 223. With no overall table position for either team, there is no baseline to measure how far these splits deviate from their general level.

The rest profiles are as far apart as the data allows: 180 days for Chicago against five for Memphis, making this a season opener for the hosts rather than a continuation of anything. The projection for Chicago therefore rests entirely on last season's home record. Memphis, by contrast, has recent scoring evidence, albeit a five-game average of 90.8 points.

The model gives Chicago 84.6% and Memphis 15.4%, with expected values of 117.6 and 105.6. It projects about 223 combined points, so a high-scoring game is expected in aggregate without any specific pattern being implied. The margin distribution is lopsided: Chicago by 11 or more covers 55.3%, Chicago by 1-10 is 29.3%, Memphis by 1-10 is 11.5% and Memphis by 11 or more is just 3.9%. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a Chicago win: Memphis's away splits are the weaker set, their recent scoring has been modest, and the model's margin distribution puts most of its weight on a double-digit home win. The case against is that Chicago were outscored across their own 20 home games, and 11.5% of the model's weight sits on a narrow Memphis win. A close game would not contradict the home record.