Ceuta2-1Málaga

Ceuta host Málaga in a pre-season friendly at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube on 7 August 2026. Neither side has a league table to draw on, so the analysis rests on recent form, home/away splits, head-to-head meetings and the model's projection.

The model gives Ceuta a 42.4% win probability — the most likely outcome — with a 25.7% draw and 31.9% for Málaga. Despite that, the projected score is 1-1. Ceuta last played nine days ago, while Málaga are opening their season after a 48-day gap.

Ceuta's home record over their last 20 matches at the Alfonso Murube shows 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, a 60% win rate. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per home game.

Their last five matches across all venues read WWWLD — three wins, one loss and one draw — with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. They last appeared on 29 July, a nine-day turnaround for this friendly.

Málaga's away record over their last 20 matches is 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses, a 50% win rate. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per away game.

Their most recent five matches overall read WDDWW — three wins and two draws — with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. However, all of those matches preceded a 48-day break; this fixture is their season opener.

Only two meetings between these sides are on record, and Málaga won both. In January 2026 they won 2-1 at home; in May 2026 they won 4-1 away.

Ceuta have scored two goals in the two matches and conceded six, an average of four goals per meeting. Both games finished with more than two total goals. With just two matches, the sample is too small to carry much weight, but the results are consistently in Málaga's favour.

This match is at Ceuta's home stadium, where they have won 60% of their last 20 games. Their home scoring average of 1.4 is lower than Málaga's away average of 1.7, but Ceuta concede fewer at home (1.1 per game) than Málaga do away (1.3).

The model's projected 1-1 scoreline suggests a tight contest. Ceuta's home advantage is reflected in their higher win probability, but Málaga's away scoring rate keeps them competitive.

The rest disparity is the clearest factor. Ceuta last played on 29 July and have had nine days to prepare. Málaga last played on 20 June, a 48-day gap, and this is their season opener.

The head-to-head record, limited to two matches, shows Málaga winning both with a combined eight goals. The model, by contrast, projects a tighter game: 1.45 expected goals for Ceuta and 1.23 for Málaga. The small sample and the off-season gap both argue for caution in reading too much into any single trend.

The model assigns Ceuta a 42.4% chance of winning, a 25.7% chance of a draw, and a 31.9% chance of an away win. It projects a 1-1 draw, with expected goals of 1.45 for Ceuta and 1.23 for Málaga.

Among exact scorelines, 1-1 is most likely at 12.2%, followed by 1-0 at 10% and 2-1 at 8.9%. Confidence is medium. The most probable result is a home win, but the most probable single scoreline is a draw, reflecting how evenly spread the home-win probabilities are across different margins.

The weight of the data points to a close match with Ceuta as the narrow favourite. Their home record, recent form, and shorter rest period give them the advantage, while Málaga's long layoff and season-opener status add uncertainty.

Málaga's two prior wins over Ceuta are part of the record, but they come from a small sample. The model's most likely outcome is a Ceuta win at 42.4%, yet the projected 1-1 draw and the 25.7% draw probability show how small the margin is. A home win is the best single guess, but a draw is a credible alternative.