Castellón1-3Levante

Castellón and Levante meet at Estadio Castalia for a pre-season friendly, the opening fixture of 2026 for Levante. Castellón have already played this summer, with their most recent match on July 29.

The model strongly favors the home side, giving Castellón a 77.4% win probability and projecting a 2-0 scoreline. That projection is built on a clear discrepancy between Castellón's home record and Levante's away record.

Castellón's record in their last 20 home matches is strong: 13 wins, four draws and three losses, a 65% win rate. They average 2.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game in those matches.

Their most recent five matches overall tell a slightly different story, with two wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. They last played on July 29, giving them ten days of rest before this friendly.

Levante's away record in their last 20 matches is poor: five wins, four draws and eleven losses, a 25% win rate. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game in those matches.

Over their last five matches overall they have three wins and two losses, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Levante have not played since May 23, a 77-day gap that makes this their season opener.

Only two meetings between these clubs are on record. Castellón won 2-0 at home in October 2024, and Levante won 3-2 at home in March 2025.

Each side has one win from those two encounters. Castellón have scored four goals to Levante's three, for an average of 3.5 goals per meeting; one of the two games featured two or fewer total goals. The sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.

This fixture takes place at Estadio Castalia. Castellón have won 13 of their last 20 home matches, with four draws and three losses, a 65% win rate.

Levante, in their last 20 away matches, have won five and lost eleven, a 25% win rate. That contrast between Castellón at home and Levante on the road is a central feature of the preview.

The data shows a major difference in preparation time. Castellón have had ten days of rest since their last match, while Levante have gone 77 days without playing and are starting their season.

The home/away split also stands out: a 65% home win rate against a 25% away win rate. The model marks its confidence as medium, meaning the historical numbers may not fully capture how a friendly will play out.

The Poisson model assigns a 77.4% probability to a Castellón win, with 13.4% for the draw and 9.2% for a Levante win. It projects a 2-0 scoreline, built on expected values of 2.92 goals for the home side and 0.94 for the visitors.

The most likely individual scoreline is 2-0 at 9%, followed by 3-0 at 8.7% and 2-1 at 8.5%. The medium confidence indicates that while the direction of the result is clear, the exact margin is less certain.

The data collectively points to a Castellón win. Their home record is strong, Levante's away record is weak, and the model gives the home side a probability north of 77%. The projected 2-0 scoreline reflects a sizable expected-goals gap.

The uncertainties are the small head-to-head sample, the medium model confidence, and Levante's season-opening status after a 77-day layoff. Since a friendly may not follow the same patterns as competitive matches, the projection is not certain, but the available numbers favor Castellón clearly.