Cajamarca1-3Atlético Grau

Cajamarca host Atlético Grau in round 6 of the Peruvian Primera División. The model gives the home side a 60.1% win probability, with a projected scoreline of 1-0. No league table data is available for either side this season, and the teams have never met on record.

Cajamarca are winless in their last three home matches, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. They have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded at home. Across their last five matches overall, the run reads L-W-L-L-D, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded.

Atlético Grau have also failed to win in their last two away games, recording 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. They have averaged 0 goals scored and 1 conceded on the road. Their recent five-match form is W-D-L-L-W, averaging 0.8 goals for and against.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two clubs. The head-to-head sample is therefore empty, offering no historical basis for prediction.

Cajamarca's home form has been weak, conceding an average of 2.33 goals across three matches without a win. Atlético Grau have scored only once in two away matches, averaging 0 goals per game. The visiting side's limited attacking output away from home stands out.

Cajamarca have had 5 days of rest since their last match, while Atlético Grau have had 7. No congestion or off-season flags are present in the data. The absence of any head-to-head history adds uncertainty, though the model still expresses medium confidence in its projection.

The model projects a 1-0 home win, with expected goals of 1.06 for Cajamarca and 0.15 for Atlético Grau. The win probabilities are 60.1% for the home side, 34.7% for a draw, and 5.2% for the away side. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (31.6%), 0-0 (29.7%), and 2-0 (16.8%). Total goals are expected to be about 1.21, with a 34.2% chance of two or more and a 9.1% probability that both sides score.

The data points firmly to a narrow Cajamarca victory, with a 60.1% win probability and a projected 1-0 scoreline. The single largest specific margin is a draw at 34.7%, closely followed by a one-goal home win at 34.2%, so a stalemate is the main alternative. That alternative, plus the lack of head-to-head and table data, is what would upend the projection.