Cagliari0-0Nice

This pre-season friendly at Unipol Domus pits Cagliari against Nice. Neither side has an active league table in the data, so the focus falls on recent results and home/away splits.

The model assigns Cagliari a 60.8% win probability, with a 1-0 projected scoreline. Nice, by contrast, are given only a 14.8% chance.

The sides have never met on record, making this a clean slate for the statistical model.

Cagliari's last 20 home matches show 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, a 40% win rate. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game at home.

In their last five matches across all settings, the form reads W-D-W-W-L (most recent first), with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their most recent outing came on 2026-07-28, giving them 11 days of rest.

Nice have a difficult away record: 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 away matches, a 15% win rate. They average 0.9 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game on those travels.

Their last five matches show W-D-D-L-D (most recent first), with an average of 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. However, the last of those matches was on 2026-05-29, and this fixture is their first after a 71-day off-season break.

There are no prior meetings between Cagliari and Nice in the available data.

With an empty head-to-head sample, no historical tendency can be inferred. The model treats this as a neutral starting point.

At home, Cagliari are an even split of wins and losses: 8 wins, 8 losses and 4 draws from their last 20 at Unipol Domus, with an average of 1.1 goals for and 1.1 against.

Nice's away numbers are starker: 3 wins, 13 losses and 4 draws in their last 20 away matches, with an average of 0.9 scored and 1.85 conceded. The home edge in this fixture is clear from the splits alone.

Rest differential is the most obvious scheduling factor. Cagliari have had 11 days since their last match, while Nice arrive after a 71-day gap that amounts to a season opener.

The model's confidence is medium, in part because there is no head-to-head record to anchor expectations. Nice's away defensive average of 1.85 conceded per game also stands out against Cagliari's home scoring rate of 1.1.

Additionally, Nice's own away scoring rate of 0.9 per game suggests limited threat, which helps explain the model's low 14.8% away win probability.

The Poisson model gives Cagliari a 60.8% chance of winning, with a 24.4% probability of a draw and 14.8% for a Nice win. The projected scoreline is 1-0, built on expected goals of 1.62 for the hosts and 0.65 for the visitors.

The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 at 16.7%, 2-0 at 13.5% and 1-1 at 10.9%. The model labels this a medium-confidence projection, reflecting the limited data on both sides.

The weight of the data points to a Cagliari win. Their home record is stronger than Nice's away record, and the model gives them a commanding probability edge.

That said, the medium confidence and the absence of any prior meetings leave room for error. If Nice's recent scoring form (1.2 per game over their last five) translates away from home, or if Cagliari's home defensive record weakens, a draw or away win is possible.

On balance, the most likely result is a narrow home win, with 1-0 the single most probable scoreline.