Cádiz2-0Granada

Preseason friendly gets underway at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla with Cádiz hosting Granada. Neither side has a league table on record, so recent form and head-to-head meetings carry the analytical weight. The Poisson model gives Granada a 38.1% win probability, while the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1. These two sides have been difficult to separate historically, with each winning once and drawing twice in their last four meetings.

Both clubs last played on 29 July and come into this match with equal rest. With no competitive table to anchor projections, this fixture is best read through the narrow margins of the model and the low-scoring pattern of past encounters.

Cádiz's home record over the last 20 matches at this venue is a challenging one: four wins, two draws and 14 defeats, a 20% win rate. They average 0.9 goals scored per home game and concede 1.55, a spread that leaves them with a negative home goal differential of -0.65 per match.

Across their last five matches in all contexts, Cádiz average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with three defeats, one win and one draw. The home sample, taken on its own, indicates a side that has struggled to turn matches into wins, so this friendly represents a chance to face a familiar opponent in a less pressured setting.

Granada's away record over the last 20 matches shows six wins, four draws and ten defeats, a 30% win rate. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per away game, a goal differential of -0.3 per match, which is notably better than Cádiz's home numbers.

Granada's overall recent form features a win in the most recent match, with four losses across the previous four outings. Their five-match average is 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, so while the defense has held at a level similar to their long-run away figures, the attack has been quieter.

The four recorded meetings between these sides are perfectly balanced: each has one win and two draws. The aggregate goals are also level at two apiece, a total of four across four matches, averaging exactly one goal per meeting. Three of the four games produced two or fewer total goals, underscoring the tight nature of these contests.

The most recent encounter, played at this venue in January 2026, ended 1-2 in favor of Granada. Two other meetings were 0-0 draws, and the remaining match was a 1-0 home win for Cádiz. This is a small sample, so the head-to-head should be treated as supporting context rather than a definitive guide.

Cádiz's home form is notably weak: a 20% win rate over 20 matches at this stadium, with 14 losses against four wins. Their home scoring average of 0.9 per game is modest, while they concede 1.55, producing a goal differential of -0.65 per home match.

Granada's away form over the same sample size is stronger: a 30% win rate, fewer defeats (10) and a goal differential of -0.3 per away match. The venue split therefore favors Granada by a narrow margin, an edge the model reflects in a slightly higher win probability.

Both sides arrive with seven days of rest since their last match on 29 July, so there is no schedule imbalance to weigh. With no league table data available for either team, the projection rests on recent form, venue splits and a four-match head-to-head sample.

The friendly status means the competitive stakes are different from a league fixture, but the model's inputs are based on the underlying performance data. The limited sample size in the head-to-head and the absence of current table context add a layer of uncertainty to any projection.

The Poisson model projects a 1-1 scoreline, with expected values of 1.01 for Cádiz and 1.12 for Granada. The win probabilities are 38.1% for Granada, 32.2% for Cádiz and 29.6% for the draw, making a Granada win the single most likely result. However, the combined probability of a home win or draw is 61.8%, so the away side's advantage is far from decisive.

The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%, closely followed by 0-1 to Granada at 13.3% and 1-0 to Cádiz at 12.0%. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides and the modest sample sizes behind the form data.

Taken together, the data points to a closely contested match with Granada holding a modest edge. The model's most likely outcome is an away win at 38.1%, but the combined probability of a draw or a home win is 61.8%, so the result is genuinely open. The head-to-head record and the expected goals projection both point to a low-scoring game.

Given the medium confidence and the small head-to-head sample, the analytical takeaway is that Granada are the marginal favorites, but not by enough to make any outcome a surprise. The underlying numbers do not support a high-confidence projection in either direction.