CádizvsGranada

Cádiz and Granada meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in a Club Friendly, with no league table data available for either side. The preview is built from recent form, home and away splits, and the four historical meetings between the clubs.

The model gives Granada the highest win probability at 38.1%, compared to 32.2% for Cádiz and 29.6% for a draw. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, but when scorelines are combined by outcome, an away win edges ahead.

Both teams last played on 2026-07-29 and have had seven days rest, so neither side carries a rest advantage into this fixture.

Cádiz's home record over their last 20 matches at Nuevo Mirandilla is 4 wins, 2 draws and 14 losses, a 20% win rate. They average 0.9 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per home game.

In their last five matches overall, Cádiz's form reads LLLWD (most recent first), with one win, one draw and three defeats. They have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game in that stretch.

Granada's away record over their last 20 matches is 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses, a 30% win rate. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per away game.

Granada's last five matches overall read WLLLL, with one win and four defeats. Their scoring average in that run is 0.8 goals per game, with 1.4 conceded.

Four meetings between Cádiz and Granada are on record, and the head-to-head is perfectly balanced: one win for each side and two draws. Goals are equally split at 2-2, giving an average of one goal per meeting.

Three of the four meetings produced two or fewer total goals. The results are: Cádiz 1-2 Granada (January 2026), Granada 0-0 Cádiz (October 2025 and again in November 2024), and Cádiz 1-0 Granada (March 2025).

The sample is small, but it consistently points toward low-scoring, closely matched games.

Cádiz's home form is poor: a 20% win rate and a negative scoring differential (0.9 scored vs 1.55 conceded per game). Granada's away form is also losing overall, with a 30% win rate, but their concession rate on the road (1.4) is lower than Cádiz's concession rate at home, and their away scoring rate (1.1) is slightly higher.

These home/away splits support the model's lean toward Granada, though the margins are small. Neither side enters with a strong venue-specific record.

Both teams have had seven days since their last match, with no short turnaround flagged. The fixture is a preseason friendly, which limits the direct carry-over of competitive form.

The head-to-head record suggests goals will be at a premium: three of four meetings had two or fewer total goals, and the average is one per game. The model's projected 1-1 scoreline is consistent with that pattern.

The absence of league table data adds uncertainty, and the model's medium confidence reflects that. The projections are best treated as a guide rather than a precise forecast.

The model assigns Granada a 38.1% win probability, Cádiz 32.2%, and the draw 29.6%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, with expected goals of 1.01 for Cádiz and 1.12 for Granada.

Although 1-1 is the single most likely exact scoreline at 13.4%, the combined probability of all away-win results gives Granada the edge. The 0-1 away scoreline is nearly as likely at 13.3%, and the 1-0 home win sits at 12%.

The model rates its confidence as medium, meaning the outcome leans toward Granada but with enough spread across scorelines that a draw or home win would not be surprising.

The data collectively points to a close, low-scoring game with Granada holding a marginal advantage. Their away record over the last 20 matches is better than Cádiz's home record in both win rate and defensive average, and the model's outcome probabilities favor them.

At the same time, the most likely exact score is 1-1, and the head-to-head is split with two draws. A draw or a one-goal win for either side are all plausible outcomes within the model's spread.

The projection would be undermined if Cádiz's recent scoring rate (1.2 per game) proves more indicative than their longer home average (0.9), or if Granada's away output stays at the lower end of their recent run. As a friendly, the result also carries inherent unpredictability beyond the statistical record.