CádizvsCeuta

This preseason friendly brings together Cádiz and Ceuta at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Both sides have no competitive league form to draw on, but recent data offers some clues. Cádiz have struggled at home over a 20-match sample, winning just five times, while Ceuta's away record shows a similar win rate but a higher tendency to concede. With only two previous meetings on record, the head-to-head provides little clarity. The model assigns Cádiz a 42.9% win probability, making them the narrow favorites.

Cádiz come into this match off the back of a mixed run. Their last five outings produced one win, two draws, and two defeats, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Over a longer sample of 20 home matches, their record is 5W 2D 13L, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 per game, a win rate of 25%. That suggests a side that has been vulnerable on their own ground, especially defensively. Their most recent match was a week ago, giving them a normal rest period.

Ceuta have not played a competitive match since late May, a 60-day gap that marks this as their season opener. Their most recent five matches yielded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. Looking at a larger sample of 20 away games, they have 5W 6D 9L, scoring 1.15 and conceding 1.85 per game, also a 25% win rate. The defensive numbers are notably worse than at home, but their attacking output is slightly better than Cádiz's home scoring average.

Only two meetings between these sides are on record. The most recent, in March 2026, saw Ceuta win 2-1 at home. The prior encounter, in September 2025, ended 0-0 at Cádiz. In total, Ceuta have scored twice and Cádiz once, with one of the two matches featuring two or fewer goals. The sample is too small to draw strong conclusions, but Ceuta have the edge in results so far.

Cádiz's home record over the last 20 matches (5W 2D 13L) is well below par, with a goal difference of -0.5 per game. They have lost 65% of those matches. Ceuta's away record over 20 games (5W 6D 9L) is similar in win rate but shows a weaker defense (1.85 conceded per game) and a slightly better attack (1.15 scored). The contrast suggests a match where Ceuta may find the net but also remain vulnerable at the back.

The main factor is the disparity in rest: Cádiz played a week ago, while Ceuta are coming off a 60-day off-season break. This is Ceuta's first competitive outing since May, which could affect their rhythm. Additionally, Cádiz's poor home form—only five wins in 20—raises questions about their reliability as favorites. The head-to-head is a minimal sample, so it carries little weight. The model's medium confidence reflects the uncertainty inherent in preseason friendlies.

The Poisson model gives Cádiz a 42.9% chance of winning, with the draw at 27.4% and a Ceuta win at 29.8%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, and the most likely exact scores are 1-1 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.1%), and 0-1 (9.7%). While a home win is the single most likely outcome, the probabilities are not overwhelming, and the spread of scorelines indicates a tight contest is expected.

The data points to a closely matched friendly with a slight lean toward Cádiz, driven by home advantage and recent activity. However, their home record has been poor, and Ceuta have shown they can compete away from home. The 60-day layoff for Ceuta adds an element of unpredictability. The model's medium confidence and the narrow probability gap suggest that any of the three outcomes would not be a surprise. If Cádiz are to win, they will likely need to improve on their typical home output.