Brighton and Hove Albion1-0Bologna

This is a pre-season friendly between Brighton and Bologna, two sides meeting for the first time on record. Brighton are playing their first match of the 2026 season, having last appeared on 24 May — an 83-day gap. Bologna, by contrast, last played on 22 July and arrive with a more recent match under their belt.

The key numbers: Brighton's home record over the last 20 matches is 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, with an average of 1.65 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Bologna's away record over the same sample is 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded. The model gives Brighton a 50.4% win probability — the most likely outcome — but also projects a 1-1 scoreline, underscoring how tight this fixture looks.

Brighton's last five matches, most recent first, are LLWLW, producing an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. That run includes three losses and two wins, and it stands in contrast to their longer home sample, where they win exactly half of their matches.

At home across the past 20 fixtures, Brighton average 1.65 goals and concede 1.1 per game. The conceded average is the lower of the two venue splits available for this fixture, and their scoring rate is marginally above Bologna's away average.

Bologna's last five matches are DDWWD, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They have not lost in that stretch, though three of those matches were draws.

Away from home over the last 20 matches, Bologna also win at a 50% rate, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Their scoring rate is almost identical to Brighton's home mark, while their defensive average is slightly higher.

There are no prior meetings between Brighton and Bologna on record. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the sample is too small to lean on for any projection. Neither side has a historical edge in this fixture to factor into the assessment.

The relevant splits are Brighton at home and Bologna away, and they are strikingly similar. Both teams have won exactly 50% of their last 20 matches in those splits, and their scoring averages differ by just 0.05 goals per game.

The main difference is defensive: Brighton concede an average of 1.1 goals at home, compared to Bologna's 1.3 away. The margin is modest, but it is the clearest venue-based distinction in the data.

The most prominent factor is the gap in match time. Brighton have not played for 83 days and are opening their season, while Bologna's last match was 24 days ago. This is the largest single discrepancy in the data.

There is no league table form for either side, and no head-to-head record, so the evaluation rests entirely on recent results and the venue splits. Brighton's last five contain three losses; Bologna's contain none, though recent form carries limited weight when the gap between matches is this large.

The Poisson goal model assigns a 50.4% probability to a Brighton win, 23.9% to a draw and 25.8% to a Bologna win. It rates Brighton as the most likely winner, but not decisively. The expected scoreline is 1-1, driven by expected goal values of 1.71 for Brighton and 1.16 for Bologna. The most likely individual scorelines are 1-1 at 11.2%, 1-0 at 9.7% and 2-1 at 9.6%.

The model projects about 2.87 total goals, with a 78.1% probability of at least two goals, 54.7% of at least three and 32.4% of at least four. It gives a 56.2% probability that each side scores at least once. On the margin, a home win by two or more goals is the largest bucket at 27.3%, with a draw at 23.9%, a one-goal home win at 23.1%, a one-goal away win at 15.6% and an away win by two or more at 10.2%. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the spread across these possibilities.

The collective picture is a tight game with a narrow edge to Brighton. Their home record is solid, and the model's highest single probability is a home win. The projected 1-1 scoreline and the cluster of probabilities around the draw and one-goal margins, however, keep the outcome genuinely open.

The honest reading is that the data support only a modest lean, not a strong prediction. The absence of any head-to-head record, the lack of league tables, and the large difference in match time between the two sides all argue for treating the model's medium confidence as appropriate. A draw or a Bologna win would not contradict the underlying numbers.