BrannvsPAOK

Brann host PAOK at Brann Stadion in the UEFA Conference League, where the most likely outcome is a home win with 47.4% probability. The only prior meeting between these sides, a week earlier, ended 1-1 in PAOK's stadium.

Brann's recent five matches have produced three wins, a draw and a loss, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. At home they have won three of their last six, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.83.

PAOK's last five matches include two wins, a draw and two losses, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Away from home they have two wins, a draw and a loss in their last four, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.75 conceded.

Only one meeting is on record: PAOK 1-1 Brann on 20 August 2026. That sample is too small to lean on, though it does show both sides scoring once.

Brann's home numbers show a slightly more open game than their recent overall form: 2.0 scored and 1.83 conceded at home against 2.2 and 1.2 overall. PAOK's away matches have also been more open, with 2.0 scored and 1.75 conceded away against 1.8 and 1.0 over their last five.

PAOK have a short turnaround of four days since their last match, while Brann have had seven days' rest. With no league table data for either team and only one head-to-head meeting, the statistical base is thin, so the model's medium confidence is appropriate.

With medium confidence, the model's most likely outcome is a Brann win, with 47.4% probability, followed by PAOK at 34.8% and the draw at 17.8%. Its projected scoreline is 2-2, which is also the single most likely exact scoreline at 6.3%, but that does not make a draw the most likely outcome. The model expects about 5.2 combined goals, with a 96.6% chance of at least two and an 85.4% chance that each side scores at least once. In terms of winning margin, a home win by two or more leads at 30.2%.

The data points to a close, high-scoring match with Brann the most likely winner, in line with their home form and the model's margin distribution. The 2-2 projected scoreline is plausible given PAOK's away scoring output. The main uncertainty is the thin statistical base: one head-to-head meeting and no league table data, so the medium confidence is appropriate.