Borussia Dortmund2-2Roma

Borussia Dortmund host Roma at Signal Iduna Park in a pre-season friendly, with no previous meetings between the clubs on record. The model gives the home side a 61.6% win probability and projects a 2-0 scoreline, reflecting Dortmund's stronger attacking output at home.

Dortmund arrive with a recent match behind them, while Roma enter this fixture as their first since May 24 after an 83-day off-season gap. The absence of any head-to-head history means the projections rest entirely on each side's recent home and away form.

Dortmund's home record over the last 20 matches shows 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, a 70% win rate. They have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game in those fixtures.

Their recent form across all competitions reads LWWLW, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their last match was on July 29, 2026, giving them 17 days of preparation for this friendly.

Roma's away form over the last 20 matches is 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses, a 55% win rate, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game.

Their last five matches have all been wins, producing an average of 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game. However, that run ended on May 24, 2026, and this fixture marks their season opener after a long off-season break.

No prior meetings between Borussia Dortmund and Roma are on record. With such a small sample — actually none at all — there is no head-to-head history to assess.

The lack of previous encounters means the model's outlook is built purely from the teams' recent results and their respective home and away splits.

Dortmund's home numbers are strong: a 70% win rate from 20 matches, with 2.4 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Roma's away numbers show a 55% win rate with 1.4 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game.

While both sides concede at a similar rate, Dortmund's home scoring average is a full goal higher than Roma's away scoring average, which underpins the model's preference for a home win.

The most notable factor is the scheduling contrast. Dortmund last played on July 29, leaving a 17-day gap, while Roma have not played since May 24 — an 83-day off-season break. This is Roma's first competitive match in that span, and the long inactivity adds uncertainty to their projection.

With no head-to-head data and both teams' league table positions unavailable, the model relies on recent form and venue splits. The medium confidence level reflects these unknowns, particularly the off-season layoff for Roma.

The Poisson model assigns a 61.6% probability to a Borussia Dortmund win, 20.9% to a draw, and 17.5% to a Roma victory. The projected scoreline is 2-0, with expected goals of 2.02 for the home side and 0.97 for the away side.

The most likely individual scorelines are 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1, each at roughly 10%. The model projects around 2.99 total goals, with an 80% chance of at least two goals and a 57.5% chance of three or more. It also gives a 54% probability that each side scores at least once.

From the home perspective, the model sees a two-goal-or-more win for Dortmund as the most likely margin at 37.7%, followed by a one-goal home win at 23.9%. A draw is at 20.9%, while away wins are less likely at 17.4% combined. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a home win, driven by Dortmund's strong home record and Roma's mixed away form, along with the absence of any head-to-head history. The model's projected 2-0 scoreline aligns with Dortmund's scoring advantage at home.

However, the medium confidence and Roma's long off-season gap mean the outcome is not settled. If Roma's attacking efficiency from their five-match winning streak carries into this fixture, the margin could be tighter than the projection suggests. A draw or away win would require Roma to outperform the model's expectations, which are built on aggregate home and away numbers rather than any direct comparison between these two clubs.