Bologna1-4Pisa

Bologna host Pisa in a club friendly at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on August 8. With no league table data available for either side, this preview relies on recent results and the model output. The Poisson model strongly favors the home side, giving Bologna a 65.3% win probability against a Pisa side that has not won any of their last 20 away matches. The projected scoreline is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.83 for Bologna and 0.67 for Pisa.

Both teams arrive in contrasting form: Bologna are unbeaten in their last five, while Pisa have lost five straight. Pisa also come into this match after a 77-day break, making this their season opener.

Bologna's home record over their last 20 matches shows six wins, five draws and nine losses, a 30% win rate. They have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game at home. In their last five matches overall, they are unbeaten with three draws and two wins, averaging 1.6 goals scored per game. That recent attacking output is higher than their longer-term home average, suggesting their current run is stronger than the overall home ledger implies.

Pisa's away record over their last 20 matches is stark: zero wins, eight draws and twelve losses, with 0.85 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game. Their most recent five matches have all ended in defeat, with an average of just 0.4 goals scored per game. This match also marks their first competitive outing after a 77-day off-season break, a factor that adds uncertainty to their projection.

Only two previous meetings between the clubs are on record. Bologna won both: a 1-0 away victory in March 2026 and a 4-0 home win in October 2025. Bologna scored five goals across the two games while Pisa failed to score. The sample is very small, so the record offers limited predictive power on its own, but it aligns with the model's lean toward the home side.

This match is played at Bologna's home ground, where they have a losing long-term record with a 30% win rate. In their last five matches overall, though, they have been harder to beat. Pisa's away form includes eight draws in 20 games, so they have taken points on the road at times, but their recent run of five losses shows no such results. The venue gives Bologna a nominal home advantage, even if their home numbers are modest.

The rest differential is the most obvious scheduling factor. Bologna last played on July 22, giving them 17 days of preparation, while Pisa last played on May 23 and have had 77 days off. Pisa's long break is flagged as an off-season gap, making this their season opener. The model confidence is medium, and the friendly nature of the match could reduce predictability, but both teams' underlying numbers come from their most recent competitive matches.

The Poisson model assigns a 65.3% probability to a Bologna win, 21.8% to a draw and 13% to a Pisa win. The most likely outcome is a Bologna win, and the projected scoreline is 1-0. Among exact scorelines, 1-0 is the most likely at 15%, followed by 2-0 at 13.8% and 1-1 at 10%. The model's confidence is medium, meaning the margin is clear but not overwhelming.

The data collectively points to a Bologna victory. Their head-to-head record is perfect, Pisa's away form is weak, and the model makes the home side a clear favorite. The main caveat is Bologna's sub-.500 home record over a longer sample, and Pisa's long layoff could reset their form in unpredictable ways. A draw is the more probable non-Bologna outcome, but the model still gives the home side a 65.3% win probability, making a home win the most reasonable projection.