Bodø/GlimtvsBorussia Dortmund

Round 2 of the Champions League brings Borussia Dortmund to Aspmyra Stadion, where the model makes Bodø/Glimt a clear favourite at 77.2%, with the draw at 13% and a Dortmund win at 9.9%. Neither club has league table data on record, so the projection rests on home and away splits and recent results rather than current standings. Model confidence is rated medium.

Bodø/Glimt's last 16 home matches read 13 wins, one draw and two defeats — an 81.3% win rate — with three goals scored and one conceded per game on average. Their last five matches brought four wins and one loss at 2.4 scored and 2 conceded. Their most recent fixture was on 14 September, 30 days before kick-off.

Dortmund's last 20 away matches produced 10 wins, four draws and six defeats, a 50% win rate, with 1.65 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Their last five returned four wins and a draw at two scored and 0.8 conceded. They last played on 9 October, five days before this fixture.

One meeting is on record: a 2-2 draw in Dortmund on 10 December 2025, leaving each club with a draw and no wins in the series. A single match is far too small a sample to lean on. Its four goals do sit close to the model's expectation of about 4.2 combined.

Bodø/Glimt's 13-1-2 home record and three-goals-per-game home average sit well above Dortmund's away returns of 10-4-6 and 1.65 scored per game. That contrast is the sharpest split in the available data. Because neither club has overall league figures on record, these splits cannot be checked against a season baseline.

The structural difference is rest: 30 days for Bodø/Glimt against five for Dortmund. The home sample covers 16 matches and the away sample 20, large enough to be indicative without being exhaustive. With no league table data for either club, nothing here reflects current domestic standing.

The Poisson model gives Bodø/Glimt 77.2%, the draw 13% and Dortmund 9.9%, projecting a 3-1 home win from expected values of 3.11 and 1.09. Its three most likely exact scorelines are 3-1 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.9%) and 3-0 (7.6%) — each individually improbable, as exact scores tend to be. Combined goals are projected at about 4.2, with a 92.2% chance of two or more and a 63.4% chance that each side scores at least once. On margin, home by two or more accounts for 58.5% against 18.6% for a single-goal win. Confidence: medium.

The data points one way: an 81.3% home win rate, three goals per home game, and a model that puts Bodø/Glimt two or more goals clear in 58.5% of its outcomes. The read would break if Dortmund's away scoring rate of 1.65 per game proves more durable than Bodø/Glimt's home defensive record of one conceded suggests. One prior meeting and no league tables on record leave the picture incomplete.