Betlemi KedavsGuria Lanchkhuti

Betlemi Keda host Guria Lanchkhuti in a Georgian Liga 3 round 19 fixture with no prior head-to-head meetings on record. The model gives the visitors a 96.5% win probability and projects a 0-3 scoreline, underlining a wide gap in recent form.

No league table data is available for Betlemi Keda. Their last five matches read LLDLL, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 3.4 conceded per game. At home across the most recent three outings they have one draw and two losses, scoring 0.33 and conceding 1.67 per match.

Guria Lanchkhuti also lack league table data. Their recent form is WWLWW, with an average of 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across the last five. Away from home in the last two matches they have two wins, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.5 per game.

No prior meetings between these two sides are on record, so the head-to-head sample is empty and cannot inform the projection.

Betlemi Keda's home scoring (0.33 per game) is slightly below their recent overall average of 0.4, but they concede far less at home (1.67) than across all recent matches (3.4). Guria Lanchkhuti's away scoring (3.5) exceeds their overall recent average of 2.8, while their away concession rate (0.5) is also better than the overall 0.8.

Both teams have similar rest, with Betlemi Keda at seven days and Guria Lanchkhuti at six. The absence of head-to-head history and table data makes the projection reliant on recent form, and the model's medium confidence reflects that limitation.

The Poisson model assigns Guria Lanchkhuti a 96.5% win probability, with a draw at 3.1% and a home win at 0.4%. The projected score is 0-3, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-3, 0-4, and 0-2. Total goals are expected around four, with a 90.7% chance of at least two and a 55.9% chance of at least four. The model also gives an 87% probability of the away side winning by two or more goals.

The data strongly points to a Guria Lanchkhuti victory, likely by a comfortable margin given their scoring output and the home side's defensive struggles. The projection would be wrong if Betlemi Keda's underlying performance differs sharply from their small-sample recent results, but on the available evidence the visitors are clear favorites.