Be12-0Garliava

Round 21 of the Lithuanian I Lyga brings Be1 and Garliava together at the Jonavos rajono centrinis stadionas. With no league table data available for either side, this preview relies on recent form and the model's projections, which strongly favour the home team. Be1 hold a 64.6% win probability, while Garliava arrive on a five-match losing streak.

Be1's recent form reads WLLLW, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a win on 14 August, and in two home games they have one win and one loss, scoring once and conceding 1.5 per game on average.

Garliava have lost all five of their most recent matches, scoring just 0.2 goals per game and conceding 1.4. Their away record over the last two fixtures is also winless, with 0.5 goals scored and two conceded per match.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record, so the head-to-head offers no useful signal for this fixture.

Be1's home numbers are slightly better than their overall recent averages, with a higher scoring rate and a lower conceding rate. Garliava's away games have seen more goals in both directions, but their defensive output is notably worse, conceding 2.0 per match compared to 1.4 overall.

Both sides have had a similar rest period, with Be1 on seven days and Garliava on six. The lack of head-to-head history and the limited recent samples, especially for home and away splits, add to the uncertainty behind the model's medium confidence.

The model gives Be1 a 64.6% chance of winning, with a draw at 24.2% and an away win at 11.2%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19.8%), and the expected goals are 1.59 to 0.49, for a combined total of about 2.09. The model sees a 61.7% chance of at least two goals and a 31.1% chance that each side scores. In terms of the margin, a home win by two or more is the most likely outcome at 36%, while a single-goal home win is at 28.6%.

All available data points to a Be1 victory, with Garliava's losing run and defensive struggles away from home giving the hosts a clear edge. That said, the model's medium confidence and the absence of any head-to-head meetings mean an upset or draw remains plausible. A 0-0 draw is the third most likely scoreline, so a more resilient defensive display from Garliava could change the picture.