Bayern Munich II1-2Memmingen

This Regionalliga Bayern meeting finds Bayern Munich II winless in their last five matches while Memmingen have taken three wins from their last four. The model gives the visitors a 66.4% win probability, with the hosts at just 5.5% and a draw at 28.1%. The projected scoreline is 0-1.

Bayern Munich II have not won in their last two home games, with one draw and one loss, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. Across their last five matches they have lost four and drawn one, scoring 0.4 per game and conceding 2.2.

Memmingen have won both of their last two away matches, averaging 2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Their recent run of four matches shows three wins and one loss, with 2 goals scored per game and 1.25 conceded.

No prior meetings between these clubs are on record, so there is no head-to-head history to draw on. The sample is too small to provide any directional signal.

At home, Bayern Munich II have one draw and one loss in their last two, while Memmingen have won both of their last two away fixtures. Recent splits therefore point clearly toward the visitors.

Bayern Munich II have had 17 days of rest since their last match, compared to 11 for Memmingen. The model's expected-goals projection is heavily skewed: 0.2 for the hosts against 1.32 for the visitors, underlining the home side's attacking struggles.

The model's medium-confidence projection gives Memmingen a 66.4% chance of winning, with a draw at 28.1% and a home win at 5.5%. The most likely scoreline is a 0-1 away win (28.9%), followed by 0-0 (21.9%) and 0-2 (19%). Total goals are expected at about 1.52, with a 44.8% chance of two or more. Winning margins favour the away side: a two-goal-plus win at 33.5% and a one-goal win at 32.9%.

All available data points to a Memmingen victory, backed by their away form and the hosts' recent struggles. The medium confidence and the 28.1% draw probability mean a share of the points is a realistic alternative, and the 0-0 scoreline is the second most likely individual result. The projection would be wrong if Bayern Munich II's low expected-goal output understates their home threat.