Austin FC II1-0San Jose Earthquakes II

Austin FC II welcome San Jose Earthquakes II to Parmer Field for a Round 27 MLS Next Pro fixture. The home side's recent form and the model's 60.6% win probability point in the same direction, though only one prior meeting is on record.

Austin have no league table record in the data, but their last three home matches brought two wins and one defeat, with 2.33 goals scored per game. Their wider five-match run reads DWWDD, conceding 0.6 per game. They are on a four-day turnaround, flagged as congested.

San Jose are without a win in their last five, a stretch of DLDDL, scoring 0.6 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Their two recorded away matches both ended level, with a goal each way on average.

The only head-to-head meeting on record ended 1-1 on August 3, with each side scoring once. A single sample is too small to lean on for this fixture.

At Parmer Field, Austin's last three outings produced 2.33 goals per game for the hosts, well above their recent five-match scoring average of 1.4. San Jose's away sample is limited to two draws, averaging one goal scored and one conceded.

Austin are playing on a congested four-day turnaround, while San Jose have had five days. Both teams' venue samples are small, and San Jose's recent scoring output is modest, all of which keeps some uncertainty around the projection.

The model assigns Austin a 60.6% win probability, with a draw at 22.2% and an away win at 17.2%. It projects roughly 2.74 total goals, a 75.8% chance of at least two goals, and a 35.6% chance of a home win by two or more. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, and the overall confidence is medium.

The data supports an Austin win, with the model favoring the home side and a modest total-goals outcome. A draw is the main alternative given San Jose's two away draws and Austin's congested schedule, and the medium confidence rating reflects the small samples involved.