Auda Kekava3-0Tukums

This Latvian Higher League fixture sees Auda Kekava host Tukums at Stadions Skonto in Round 27. The hosts have won all four home matches in the sample, while the visitors have lost all three away games. The model gives the home side a 95.9% win probability.

Auda Kekava have won all four home matches in the last four, scoring 2.25 goals per game and conceding 0.75. Across their last five matches they are four wins and one defeat (WLWWW), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. Their most recent match came on 17 August, a four-day turnaround.

Tukums have lost all three away matches in the sample, averaging 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded. Their last five matches are five consecutive losses, with 0.6 scored and 2 conceded per game. They last played on 8 August, giving them 13 days of rest.

No prior meetings are on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to draw any conclusions.

The home and away splits are stark. Auda Kekava's last four home games are all wins, while Tukums' last three away games are all losses. The venue strongly favors the home side.

Auda Kekava are on a short turnaround after playing four days ago, while Tukums have had 13 days since their last match. With no head-to-head history, the model's medium confidence reflects some uncertainty in the projection.

The Poisson model projects a 4-0 scoreline, with expected goals of 4.18 for Auda Kekava and 0.33 for Tukums. It puts home win probability at 95.9%, draw at 3.3%, and away win at 0.8%. The model expects about 4.5 total goals, with an 82.3% chance of three or more, a 65% chance of four or more, and only a 27.7% chance both teams score. The most likely exact scoreline is 4-0 (14.4%), followed by 3-0 (13.7%) and 5-0 (12%). The margin is likely to be decisive: 87% probability of a home win by two or more goals.

The data points to a comfortable home win, with Auda Kekava's strong home record and Tukums' away struggles aligning with the model's 95.9% probability. The most likely outcome is an Auda Kekava victory, most plausibly by a multi-goal margin. A departure from recent form — particularly a much tighter defensive performance from Tukums — would be needed to shift that expectation.