Atlanta Dream83-101Portland Fire

This WNBA fixture sees Atlanta Dream host Portland Fire at Gateway Center Arena. The model gives the home side a 77.2% win probability and projects an 82-73 scoreline. Atlanta have won 14 of their last 20 at home, while Portland have lost 12 of their last 19 on the road.

No league table data is available for Atlanta, but their last 20 home games show a 14-6 record with an average of 89.4 points scored and 83.75 conceded. Their recent five-game stretch includes four wins, though scoring dipped to 71 points per game with 60.2 allowed.

Portland also lack league table data, with a 7-12 away record over their last 19 road games, averaging 85.26 scored and 91.21 conceded. Their recent five games produced two wins, scoring 86.4 per game and 87.8 allowed.

The teams have split two meetings this season, each winning on the road. Portland took a 102-92 win in Atlanta in July, while Atlanta won 86-66 in Portland in May. The combined points in those games averaged 173, well above the model's projected total for this matchup.

Atlanta's 70% home win rate gives them a venue advantage, and they have outscored opponents by 5.65 points per game at home. Portland, conversely, have a 36.8% away win rate and a scoring differential of about -5.95 per game on the road.

Both sides come in with five days of rest after playing on August 23. The head-to-head sample is only two games, which limits the strength of that data. Atlanta's recent scoring average is well below their home average, a point to watch.

The model assigns Atlanta a 77.2% win probability and projects an 82-73 victory, a margin of 8.6 points. It expects roughly 155 combined points, lower than the 173 seen in the two prior meetings. The margin distribution has Atlanta winning by 11 or more at 43.3%, by 1-10 at 33.9%, while Portland winning by 1-10 sits at 16.6% and by 11 or more at 6.2%. Confidence is medium.

The data collectively points to an Atlanta win, backed by their strong home record and Portland's road struggles. The model's projected margin is comfortable, though the medium confidence and small head-to-head sample leave room for an upset. If Atlanta's recent scoring output repeats, the total could land below the projection, but the win probability remains firmly on the home side.