Athletic Bilbao1-3Sevilla

Athletic Bilbao host Sevilla at San Mamés in the second round of the 2026-27 La Liga campaign. With only one round played, the league table offers little signal, so the numbers below are drawn from the 2025-26 season, where both sides finished in mid-table.

Bilbao ended that season 12th with 45 points, while Sevilla were 13th with 43 points. Their underlying numbers are similarly close: Bilbao averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game, while Sevilla averaged 1.21 scored and 1.58 conceded. The model gives the home side a narrow but clear edge, with a 42.4% win probability.

Bilbao's 2025-26 league campaign was inconsistent: 13 wins, 6 draws and 19 losses from 38 matches. Their attack ranked 15th in the division and their defence 16th, reflecting a negative goal difference of -15. Their last five recorded results, reading most recent first, were WWLDL, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.

At home over a longer sample of their last 20 matches, Bilbao won 8, drew 4 and lost 8, a win rate of 40%, while averaging 1.15 goals for and 1.2 against. Their overall win rate was 34.2%, so home advantage gave them a modest lift in results.

Sevilla's 2025-26 campaign produced 12 wins, 7 draws and 19 losses, with 43 points. They averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game, with the attack ranked 12th and the defence 17th in the division. Their last five recorded results, most recent first, were WWDLL, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.

Away from home in their last 20 matches, Sevilla won 6, drew 4 and lost 10, a 30% win rate, while averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. That win rate is slightly below their overall 31.6%, so playing on the road did not improve their results.

Four meetings between these sides are on record. Athletic Bilbao have won two, drawn one and lost one, while Sevilla have won one, drawn one and lost two. Bilbao have scored six goals and Sevilla five, giving an average of 2.75 goals per meeting. In two of the four matches, the total goals were two or fewer.

The results, with the home team listed first: Sevilla 2-1 Athletic Bilbao in January 2026; Athletic Bilbao 3-2 Sevilla in August 2025; Sevilla 0-1 Athletic Bilbao in March 2025; and Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Sevilla in September 2024.

This fixture is at San Mamés, where Athletic Bilbao have shown a modest home edge. Across their last 20 home games they won 40% of matches, compared with a 34.2% win rate overall, and conceded only 1.2 goals per game at home against 1.53 overall. Their scoring rate at home, 1.15 per game, is essentially unchanged from their overall average of 1.13.

Sevilla, meanwhile, have been slightly less effective on the road. Their away win rate of 30% over the last 20 sits below their overall 31.6%, and they concede an average of 1.65 goals away compared with 1.58 overall. Their away scoring (1.1 per game) is also a touch lower than their overall 1.21.

One notable difference between the sides is rest time. Athletic Bilbao's last recorded match was on 29 July, 24 days before this game, while Sevilla played on 15 August, seven days earlier. The longer gap gives Bilbao more recovery time, though any effect on sharpness is not measurable from the data.

Schedule strength in recent matches has been demanding for both teams. Across their last three recorded fixtures, Bilbao's opponents have ranked on average 6.3, and Sevilla's have ranked 5.3, suggesting both have been tested against strong sides. That context makes their recent form harder to interpret.

Given that all table and form data comes from the 2025-26 season, and the current season has only one round of matches played, projections carry a degree of uncertainty. The head-to-head record is limited to four meetings, a small sample that nonetheless nudges toward Bilbao.

The model assigns a 42.4% probability to a home win, 25% to a draw, and 32.6% to an away win. That makes an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely outcome, though the margin over the other possibilities is not overwhelming. The projected scoreline, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Bilbao and 1.30 for Sevilla, is 1-1. The single most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%, followed by 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.9%) — but because home-win scorelines collectively outnumber draw and away-win scorelines, the home win is the model's top-line result.

In total-goals terms, the model projects about 2.82 goals combined. There is a 77.3% chance of at least two goals, a 53.6% chance of at least three, and a 31.3% chance of at least four. The probability that both sides score at least once is 56.9%, meaning a clean sheet for either side is a meaningful but not dominant possibility.

On the winning margin, the model sees a 20.9% chance of the home side winning by two or more, 21.5% of a home win by one, 25% of a draw, 18.4% of an away win by one, and 14.2% of an away win by two or more. The draw is the largest single margin category at 25%, but the combined home-win margins total 42.4%, exceeding the 32.6% combined away-win margins.

The data points toward a tight match with a slight advantage for Athletic Bilbao. The rest advantage and a marginally stronger home profile, together with a positive head-to-head record against Sevilla, are enough for the model to make a home win the most probable result. But the probabilities are far from decisive: the draw is the largest single margin category in the model, and Sevilla's away chances, while lower, are not negligible.

If the longer break for Bilbao disrupts their rhythm, or if last season's form proves a poor guide to this early-season fixture, Sevilla are well positioned to take points. Conversely, if Bilbao reproduce their stronger defensive numbers at home from last season and Sevilla's away vulnerability persists, a narrow home win is the most plausible outcome.