Arsenal1-1Como

This friendly at the Emirates Stadium marks the start of the 2026 season for both sides, each coming off a lengthy break since their last competitive match in late May. The fixture pits Arsenal's formidable home record against a Como side that has been solid on the road, though the two clubs have never met before.

The model gives Arsenal a 47.8% win probability, making them the clear favorite, with a draw at 31% and a Como win at 21.1%. The projected scoreline is a narrow 1-0, reflecting what could be a tight, low-scoring encounter.

Arsenal's home record over their last 20 matches at the Emirates is imposing: 16 wins, 2 draws, and only 2 defeats, a win rate of 80%. They have averaged 1.95 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game, indicating both attacking potency and defensive solidity in front of their own fans.

In their most recent five matches, all from the tail end of last season, Arsenal went DWWWW, recording four wins and a draw. They averaged 1.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game in that run. Arsenal's last match was on May 30, 74 days before this fixture, meaning they are coming off a full off-season break.

Como's away record over their last 20 matches on the road is a solid 10 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a 50% win rate. They have averaged 1.55 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per away game, suggesting they are competitive away from home without being dominant.

Their recent form in the last five matches is WWWDW, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. Como's last match was on May 24, 80 days before this fixture, meaning they too are coming off an extended off-season layoff.

There are no prior meetings on record between Arsenal and Como.

The absence of any head-to-head history means there is no direct comparative data to draw on. With zero previous encounters, the sample is too small to lean on for any meaningful analysis of how these two sides match up.

Arsenal's home numbers are among the strongest in this dataset. Their 80% win rate at the Emirates, with 1.95 goals scored per game, suggests they typically control matches in front of their own fans. The 0.65 goals conceded per home game underlines a stingy defense.

Como, meanwhile, have shown they can travel well: a 50% away win rate with 1.55 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. While those numbers are respectable, they fall short of Arsenal's home output, which may be the decisive factor in this friendly.

Both teams enter this match after a long off-season layoff — 74 days for Arsenal, 80 days for Como — which adds uncertainty to how they will perform in this season opener. The model reflects this with a medium confidence level.

Additionally, the absence of any previous meetings between the clubs eliminates head-to-head data as a predictive tool. With no historical pattern to lean on, the model's projections are based entirely on recent form and home/away performance, which adds an extra layer of caution to any forecast.

The model, rated at medium confidence, gives Arsenal a 47.8% win probability, a draw 31%, and Como 21.1%. The projected scoreline is 1-0, built on expected goals of 1.17 for Arsenal and 0.67 for Como. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 at 18.6%, followed by 0-0 at 15.9% and 1-1 at 12.5%.

In aggregate, the model projects about 1.84 total goals, with a 54.9% chance of two or more goals, a 28% chance of three or more, and an 11.5% chance of four or more. The probability that both teams score at least once is just 33.7%, suggesting a clean sheet for at least one side is more likely than not.

Looking at the margin, the model sees a narrow home win as the most common result: Arsenal by one goal is 26.9%, while a two-goal or greater home win is 21%. The draw is at 31%, and a Como win by one goal is 15.4%, with a Como win by two or more at just 5.7%. Overall, the model expects a tight contest with Arsenal holding the edge.

The data points toward a narrow Arsenal win. Arsenal's dominant home record and Como's respectable but inferior away form give the hosts the edge, and the model's 47.8% win probability makes them the clear favorite.

That said, the long break for both sides and the absence of prior meetings introduce real uncertainty. If Como's recent defensive solidity — four wins from five, with just 0.2 goals conceded per game — carries into this friendly, a draw becomes more plausible. Similarly, Arsenal's attacking output may be tempered by the off-season gap, which could keep the final scoreline within a single goal.