Arsenal-2 Tula1-1Shumbrat Saransk

Arsenal-2 Tula host Shumbrat Saransk in Russia FNL 2 Group 3, with the visitors carrying a 73.4% win probability in the model. The home side are winless in their last five matches, while Shumbrat have lost only one of their last five. League table positions are not available in the data.

Arsenal-2 Tula's recent form reads DDDLL, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2 conceded per game. In their last three home matches they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. No league table data is on record.

Shumbrat Saransk's recent form is DDDWL, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their last three away matches produced one win, one draw and one loss, with 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. No league table data is on record.

The only prior meeting on record ended 1-1, with Arsenal-2 Tula and Shumbrat Saransk each scoring once. A single match is too small a sample to draw a reliable head-to-head signal.

At home, Arsenal-2 Tula have won none of their last three, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Shumbrat Saransk average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded in their last three away games, a slightly higher scoring output than their overall recent rate. The away side's away record is more balanced than the home side's.

Both teams are on a congested short turnaround, with each having played on this date. No league table data is available to gauge schedule strength. The head-to-head sample is limited to a single meeting.

The Poisson model gives Shumbrat Saransk a 73.4% chance of winning, with a draw at 15.7% and an Arsenal-2 Tula win at 10.8%. The projected score is 0-2, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-2, 1-2 and 0-3. The model projects about 3.45 total goals, with an 85.8% chance of at least two goals and a 54.3% chance both teams score. An away win by two or more goals is the largest margin outcome at 51.7%, versus 21.7% for an away win by exactly one.

The data points strongly to an away win: Shumbrat Saransk have the better recent form, a more productive recent away scoring record than Arsenal-2 Tula's home scoring, and a 73.4% model probability. Arsenal-2 Tula's winless home run and defensive averages offer little counterweight. The projection would be wrong if Arsenal-2 Tula produce a result that defies both their recent pattern and the model's 10.8% chance, but nothing in the data indicates that.