Aritma PrahavsKrálův Dvůr

Round 4 of the Czech Bohemian Football League Group A brings Aritma Praha and Králův Dvůr together at Areál Aritmy for the first recorded meeting between the sides. The model gives the home side a 55.2% win probability against a lowly 5.9% for the visitors, but also projects a goalless draw as the single most likely scoreline. With both teams level on rest, the fixture shapes as a tight, low-scoring contest.

Aritma Praha have not lost in their last two home matches, recording one win and one draw while conceding no goals in that stretch. Their broader recent form across all competitions reads DDDWW, with an average of one goal scored and 0.6 conceded per match. The last outing was on 2026-08-22.

Králův Dvůr have won once in their last three away games, losing the other two, with a scoring average of two goals per match but a concerning 2.33 conceded. Their last five matches overall show WWDLL, averaging 2.2 goals scored and two conceded. Their most recent match was also on 2026-08-22.

There are no prior meetings between Aritma Praha and Králův Dvůr on record, so historical head-to-head provides no basis for projecting this fixture. The model must rely entirely on current form and venue data.

Aritma Praha's home numbers over the last two matches show a stingy defense with zero goals conceded, though they have scored only 0.5 per game at home. Králův Dvůr's away record over the last three shows a more open pattern: two goals scored per match but 2.33 conceded. That contrast points toward the home side's defensive solidity being the key venue factor.

Both sides come into this match after a seven-day rest, so neither holds an edge in preparation time. The absence of any prior head-to-head data adds uncertainty, and the model's medium confidence reflects that. With the away side conceding heavily on the road, Aritma Praha's clean-sheet record at home could be decisive.

The model projects a very low total of about 1.08 goals, with a 29.3% chance of two or more goals being scored. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 at 34%, followed by 1-0 at 31.6%, and the expected goals are 0.93 for the home side and 0.15 for the away side. On the result, the model gives Aritma Praha a 55.2% win probability, a draw 38.9%, and Králův Dvůr 5.9%; it also rates a home win by one goal (33.8%) as more likely than a two-goal margin (21.4%).

The data points to a narrow home win or a draw, with the most likely outcome being an Aritma Praha victory. However, the most probable exact scoreline is 0-0, meaning a cagey, low-scoring affair is the central expectation. The projection would be overturned if Králův Dvůr's recent scoring form, which has been strong, breaks through a home defense that has not conceded in two matches.