Ansbach 091-3Buchbach

Ansbach 09 host Buchbach in round five of the Regionalliga Bayern, with both sides coming off a seven-day break. The most striking number is the model's 97.6% win probability for the visitors, set against Ansbach's two straight home losses. There are no prior meetings on record, so this projection leans entirely on current form.

Ansbach have lost all of their last five matches, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 3.8 conceded. In two home games they have two defeats, scoring 0.5 and conceding 4.5 per match, for a 0% win rate at home.

Buchbach are unbeaten in their last five, with three draws and two wins, averaging 2.2 goals scored and one conceded. Away from home they have one win and one draw in two matches, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides. With no head-to-head data available, the model's estimates rest entirely on recent form and team strength.

Ansbach's home splits are grim: two losses with a combined 1-9 goal difference. Buchbach's away record shows one win and one draw, conceding only 0.5 goals per match, suggesting the venue is unlikely to change the picture.

Both teams last played on 2026-08-14 and have had seven days to prepare. No league table data is available for either side, so the model relies on other performance indicators. The clearest factor is Ansbach's five-match losing run against Buchbach's five-match unbeaten spell.

The Poisson model, with medium confidence, gives Buchbach a 97.6% chance of winning, with a draw at 2.1% and an Ansbach win at 0.3%. The projected score is 0-4, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-4, 0-3, and 0-5. Total goals are projected at about 4.65, with a 66.9% probability of at least four goals. The model also gives a 17.9% chance that each side scores at least once, and an away win by two or more carries a 90.9% probability.

The data collectively points to a dominant Buchbach victory, with the model giving a 90.9% probability of an away win by two or more goals. The main uncertainties are the absence of head-to-head history and the lack of available league-table context, but the form gap is so large that an Ansbach result would be a major surprise. A draw or home win would contradict nearly every input in the model.