Ankara KeçiörengücüvsÜmraniyespor

Round 4 of the Turkish 1 Lig season brings Ankara Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor together at Keçiören Aktepe Stadyumu. The model gives the hosts a 97.7% win probability, far exceeding the other outcomes. Only one prior meeting between these sides is on record.

Ankara Keçiörengücü have collected seven points from their last five matches, with two wins, a draw and two losses. They average 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across that run.

Ümraniyespor have taken two points from their last five matches, with two draws and three losses. Their average is 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game.

One previous meeting is on record: in May 2026, Ankara Keçiörengücü won 4-1 at Ümraniyespor. That match produced five goals, and the data shows no meetings with two or fewer total goals. The sample is far too small to draw reliable head-to-head conclusions.

Ankara Keçiörengücü's only home match this season was a 4-1 win, giving them a perfect home record on a one-game sample. Ümraniyespor's only away match was a 1-2 loss, and they have yet to earn a point on the road.

Rest is nearly level, with five days for the hosts and six for the visitors. The away side's recent scoring output is considerably weaker than the hosts' 2.4 per game. The model's medium confidence acknowledges the limited sample sizes.

The Poisson model projects a 6-0 home win, with expected goals of 6.0 for Ankara Keçiörengücü and 0.66 for Ümraniyespor. The most likely exact scorelines are 6-0 and 5-0, each at 9.8%, and the model puts the probability of a home win by two or more goals at 93.4%. Total goals are expected to reach about 6.66, and the chance that both sides score is 48.1%.

Every meaningful indicator points to a dominant home victory, with the away side given a 0.6% chance of winning. The small samples for form, venue, and head-to-head history mean the exact margin carries substantial uncertainty, and the result would look very different if Ümraniyespor's recent scoring struggles reverse. As it stands, the data supports a high-scoring, comfortable home win.