Andijon1-0Xorazm Urganch

Round 19 of the Uzbekistan Super League sees Andijon host Xorazm Urganch at Stadion Soglom Avlod, with no prior meetings on record. League table data is unavailable, so the model offers the clearest signal: a 54.2% probability of an Andijon win and a projected 1-0 scoreline.

Andijon have won one, drawn one and lost one across their last three home matches, scoring 0.67 goals per game and conceding one. Their wider recent run shows two wins in five (WLLDW), with 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, pointing to a low-scoring but defensively compact side. They last played six days ago.

Xorazm Urganch are winless in their last three away games, with one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.33 scored but three conceded per match. Their overall recent form is also mixed (LDWLW), with 1.4 scored and two conceded per game. They arrive on five days' rest.

No prior meetings between Andijon and Xorazm Urganch are on record, leaving the head-to-head sample empty. This fixture cannot be read through past results, so expectations rest on current form and the model's projection.

Andijon's home numbers show modest scoring but solid defending, conceding an average of one goal per game at Stadion Soglom Avlod. Xorazm's away record over the same stretch is notably weaker at the back, shipping three per match. That defensive gap is central to the home side's favouritism.

Both teams have had a standard gap between matches: six days for Andijon and five for Xorazm, so congestion is not a factor. With no head-to-head history and a medium-confidence model, the projection carries more uncertainty than a typical fixture with deeper data.

The Poisson model projects a 1-0 Andijon win, with the home side at 54.2%, the draw at 25.1%, and the away side at 20.7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 (13.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.8%) and 2-0 (10.7%). Total goals are expected around 2.47, with a 70.7% chance of two or more and a 44.9% chance of three or more; the probability both sides score at least once is 46.6%. For winning margins, a home win by two or more is the largest bucket at 28.9%, just ahead of a one-goal home win (25.3%) and the draw (25.1%).

The data collectively points to an Andijon win—the model's most likely outcome—with the projected 1-0 scoreline the most probable exact result. Xorazm's away defensive issues give the hosts a clear edge, though Andijon's limited scoring keeps the margin narrow. This verdict would be wrong if Xorazm's away scoring rate (1.33 per game) holds up against Andijon's home defence, or if the lack of head-to-head meetings masks a closer matchup than the model suggests.