AmiensvsRed Star

Two teams with contrasting recent form meet in a Club Friendly at Stade de la Licorne. Amiens, who have lost four of their last five matches, host a Red Star side that has won two of its last five. The model gives Red Star a 54.4% chance of victory, with a projected scoreline of 0-1, reflecting Amiens' defensive difficulties at home.

Amiens have won only three of their last 20 home games while conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. Red Star, by contrast, have been solid on the road, with eight wins in their last 20 away fixtures and a favorable goal difference. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at two wins apiece, but the most recent meeting saw Red Star win 3-1 away.

Amiens enter this fixture on a poor run, having lost four and drawn one of their last five matches. In that span they have scored just 0.4 goals per game while conceding 2.4, underscoring both offensive struggles and defensive frailty. Their last outing was a defeat on July 24, and they have had a full week to prepare.

At home, the picture is similarly bleak. Over the last 20 home games, Amiens have managed only three wins (15% win rate) while losing 13 times. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded at Stade de la Licorne, suggesting they are vulnerable on their own turf. Without league table data, it is difficult to benchmark these numbers, but the raw figures point to a clear disadvantage.

Red Star's away record over the past 20 matches is respectable: eight wins, six draws, and six losses, a 40% win rate. They score an average of 1.35 goals per away game and concede exactly one, giving them a positive goal differential on the road. Their recent form is mixed: after two losses, they won two of their last three, including the most recent match on July 24.

Compared to Amiens' home struggles, Red Star's away consistency stands out. The model projects them to score once, which aligns with their typical output. With a full week's rest and no extra fixture congestion, they are well-positioned to maintain their recent positive momentum.

The two sides have met four times on record, with each team winning twice. There have been no draws. Goals have been plentiful: Amiens have scored seven, Red Star six, for an average of 3.25 goals per meeting. Three of the four matches produced three or more goals, while only one saw two or fewer.

Notably, the most recent encounter on May 2, 2026, was a 3-1 away win for Red Star. That result mirrors the pattern of the head-to-head, where the away side has won three of the four matches. The sample is small, but the data suggests these games tend to be high-scoring and unpredictable.

Amiens' home form is poor: a win rate of just 15% over 20 matches, with 13 defeats. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, meaning they typically need to score three to have a realistic chance of winning. Red Star's away form is stronger: a 40% win rate with a positive goal differential.

The model's projected scoreline of 0-1 reflects Amiens' defensive shortcomings at home and Red Star's ability to keep clean sheets on the road. Given that Red Star have conceded exactly one goal per away game on average, a low-scoring affair is plausible despite the head-to-head history suggesting otherwise.

Both teams have had seven days of rest since their last matches on July 24, so neither holds a fitness advantage. The fixture is a friendly, so lineups and intensity may vary, but the model treats it as a standard encounter.

Amiens' recent run of four losses in five games is a concern, especially given their home record. Red Star have been more efficient on the road and have the momentum of two wins in their last three. The medium confidence level of the model indicates some uncertainty, likely because the friendly context can introduce variables not captured by historical data.

The Poisson model assigns a 54.4% probability of a Red Star win, making it the most likely outcome. A draw is forecast at 25.1%, while an Amiens win stands at 20.6%. The projected score is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.87 for Amiens and 1.6 for Red Star.

The most likely exact scorelines are 0-1 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.8%), and 0-2 (10.8%). Each of these is a plausible outcome, but the 0-1 result is the single most probable. The model's medium confidence suggests that while Red Star are clear favorites, there is enough variance that other results are well within reason.

The data points decisively toward an away win for Red Star. Their superior away form, Amiens' poor home record, and the model's 54.4% probability all align. The head-to-head is balanced, but the most recent meeting favors Red Star.

However, the friendly nature of the match and the medium confidence level mean that the outcome is not guaranteed. If Amiens can rediscover some defensive solidity or if Red Star's recent inconsistency resurfaces, an upset is possible. Still, the weight of evidence supports Red Star as the team most likely to emerge victorious.