Amiens3-1Red Star

Amiens host Red Star at Stade de la Licorne in a pre-season friendly on July 31. Neither side has league table data in the available stats, so the focus falls on recent form, home/away splits, and a four-match head-to-head history.

The standout number is Red Star's 54.4% win probability from the Poisson model, against 20.6% for Amiens and 25.1% for a draw. Red Star also hold a stronger away record over their last 20 matches, while Amiens' home record has been poor.

Amiens have endured a rough recent run, with their last five results reading LDLLL. Over that stretch they have averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match.

Their home record over the last 20 games shows 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses, a win rate of 15%. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded at home, so the recent dip in scoring stands out.

Red Star's last five matches show LLDWW, with the two most recent results ending in wins. During that five-game span they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.

Away from home, their last 20 matches include 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, a 40% win rate, with 1.35 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. That is a stronger split than Amiens' home numbers.

The four recorded meetings between these sides are perfectly split: Amiens have two wins and Red Star have two wins. Total goals across the four games are 13, an average of 3.25, though only one game produced two or fewer goals.

The most recent meeting was a 3-1 Red Star win at Amiens in May 2026. The other three results were a 3-1 Amiens win at Red Star, a 2-0 Red Star home win, and a 3-0 Amiens home win.

This friendly is at Amiens' home ground, where their last 20 matches have produced just 15% wins and a negative goal difference (1.1 scored, 1.8 conceded). Red Star's away form over the same sample is stronger, with 40% wins and a positive goal difference (1.35 scored, 1.0 conceded).

In the two head-to-head meetings staged at Amiens, each side has won once; the most recent was Red Star's 3-1 victory in May 2026.

Both teams last played on July 24, giving each seven days of rest entering the fixture. The friendly context may affect lineups, but no squad data is available, so projections rely on the recorded statistics.

The absence of league table data is a limitation; the model is working from a relatively small set of recent results and home/away splits. The head-to-head sample of four matches is also modest.

Red Star's recent form (two wins in the last two) contrasts with Amiens' three consecutive losses, but the medium confidence level indicates that these numbers carry meaningful uncertainty.

The Poisson model gives Red Star a 54.4% chance of winning, with a draw at 25.1% and an Amiens win at 20.6%. The projected scoreline is 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.87 for Amiens and 1.6 for Red Star.

The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1 at 13.5%, followed by 1-1 at 11.8% and 0-2 at 10.8%. Even combined, these three scorelines account for just over a third of the probability distribution, and the medium confidence level suggests the model is not particularly decisive.

The data collectively favors an away win. Red Star's away record is better than Amiens' home record, their recent scoring output is higher, and the model gives them a clear majority probability.

Amiens' recent form has been poor, with just 0.4 goals per game in the last five. That said, the head-to-head is evenly matched, and the medium confidence leaves room for a different result.

If Amiens' recent dip does not fully represent their current level, the home side could outperform the projection. As it stands, the most likely outcome is a Red Star win, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline.