Altglienicke3-3Wolfsburg

This DFB-Pokal first-round tie sees Altglienicke host Wolfsburg with the model giving the home side an 88.1% win probability. Both teams last played on 16 August, so rest is even, and no prior meetings between the clubs are on record. League table data is unavailable for either side, so form is judged from recent matches alone.

Altglienicke's last two home matches were both wins, with an average of 2.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. Their overall recent run is W-W-D-W-D, averaging 2.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game. The sample is small, but the numbers are consistently strong.

Wolfsburg have won 7 of their last 20 away matches, drawing 4 and losing 9, scoring 1.35 per game and conceding 1.95. The last five games overall, however, show W-D-W-L-W with only 0.6 conceded per game, a marked improvement on the longer away trend.

There are no prior meetings between Altglienicke and Wolfsburg on record, so this fixture has no historical head-to-head to lean on. The sample is too small to draw any comparative conclusions.

Altglienicke's home record over the available sample is perfect: two wins from two, averaging 2.5 scored and 1 conceded. Wolfsburg's away form over 20 matches is markedly more porous, conceding nearly two goals per game. The gap in home/away defensive solidity is a key driver behind the model's projection.

Both sides come in off an identical eight-day rest, so fatigue is not a differentiator. Altglienicke's recent scoring output is high — 2.6 per game across the last five — while Wolfsburg's away defensive numbers are significantly weaker. With no prior meetings and no league table context, the model's medium confidence reflects the limited data.

The Poisson model projects a 3-0 Altglienicke win, with expected goals of 3.89 to 0.89. The home win probability is 88.1%, draw 7.6% and away win 4.3%, with the most likely exact scoreline 3-0 at 8.4%. It expects about 4.8 total goals, with a 95.1% chance of at least two goals, a 69.7% chance of four or more, and only a 57.6% chance both teams score. The home side is projected to win by two or more goals in 74.6% of simulations.

The data points decisively toward an Altglienicke win, with the strongest single projection being a multi-goal victory. That said, the model's confidence is only medium, and Wolfsburg's recent five-game form shows solid defensive improvement, which could keep the margin tighter than expected. If the away side's recent defensive discipline holds, the 3-0 projection loses some of its edge.