Alianza LimavsDeportivo Garcilaso

Alianza Lima host Deportivo Garcilaso at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in a round 7 fixture, with no league table data available to set the scene. The model's most likely outcome is a draw at 54.9%, and the most likely exact scoreline is 0-0. Both sides enter on seven days' rest after playing on 2026-08-23.

Alianza Lima have won both of their last two home matches, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 0.5. Their wider recent run across five matches reads DWDWD, with averages of 1.6 scored and 1 conceded. Their last match was on 2026-08-23.

Deportivo Garcilaso's last three away games brought one win, one draw and one loss, with a scoring average of 0.33 and a concession average of 0.33. Over their last five matches overall they are WDWWW, averaging 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded. Their most recent match also took place on 2026-08-23.

These two sides have no prior meetings on record, so the head-to-head provides no guidance. The sample is effectively zero, and any prediction must rely on current form and the model.

Alianza Lima's home record is a perfect two-from-two, with their attacking output at home (2.0 per game) above their recent overall average (1.6). Deportivo Garcilaso's away scoring is low at 0.33 per game, below their recent overall average of 1.8. The small samples at both ends suggest these splits should be treated with caution.

Both teams have had the same seven-day rest period, so neither holds an edge in preparation time. The lack of any head-to-head history adds uncertainty, and the model assigns medium confidence accordingly. The away side's recent form is strong, but their away scoring average is modest, which shapes the low-scoring projection.

The model gives the draw a 54.9% probability, with the home win at 36.6% and the away win at 8.5%. It projects a 0-0 scoreline, with expected goals of 0.53 for the home side and 0.15 for the away side, for about 0.68 total goals. The chance of two or more goals is just 14.8%, and there is a 5.7% probability that both teams score. The winning-margin distribution mirrors this: 54.9% draw, 27.9% home by one, 8.7% home by two or more, 7.9% away by one, and 0.6% away by two or more.

Everything points to a low-scoring, tightly contested game, with the draw the most probable result. For Alianza Lima to win, they would need to breach an away defense that has conceded only 0.33 per game in its last three road trips. The small samples and absence of prior meetings mean the model's medium confidence is the honest takeaway.