Akron TolyattivsCSKA Moscow

This round-six fixture is a rematch of a meeting ten days ago, when Akron Tolyatti won 1-0 at CSKA Moscow. That result is the only head-to-head data point, and the model gives CSKA a 63.1% win probability, with Akron at 4.8%. Akron have lost all four home matches, scoring once and conceding 3.5 per game.

Akron’s last five matches read L-W-D-D-L, with 0.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game. At home the numbers are far worse: four defeats, 0.25 goals scored and 3.5 conceded per match. They are yet to take a point at their own ground in the available data.

CSKA Moscow’s last five matches show two wins, two draws and a loss, averaging one goal scored and 0.8 conceded. Their last two away games both ended in draws, with 0.5 goals scored and conceded per match. They have not lost away within that sample.

The only recorded meeting between the clubs was on 18 August 2026, when Akron Tolyatti won 1-0 at CSKA Moscow. A single match is too small a sample to carry much predictive weight, but it does show Akron can beat this opponent even away from home.

Akron’s home record of 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses is markedly worse than their overall recent form of one win, two draws and two losses, so their only victory in that stretch came away. CSKA’s away form is more restrained than their overall numbers: two draws with 0.5 goals for and against, compared to 1 scored and 0.8 conceded across all recent matches. This split points toward a low-scoring contest.

Both sides have had five or six days of rest since their previous match, so there is no short-turnaround factor. The head-to-head evidence is extremely thin, offering just one result. The model gives only a 9.5% probability that both teams score, underlining the expectation of few goals.

The Poisson model projects a 0-1 scoreline, with expected goals of 0.15 for Akron and 1.15 for CSKA. CSKA Moscow win is the most likely outcome at 63.1%, followed by a draw at 32.1% and a home win at 4.8%. Confidence is medium; total goals are expected around 1.3, with a one-goal away win the single most common margin at 34.1% and a draw close behind at 32.1%.

The data favors a low-scoring away win for CSKA, with a single-goal margin the most likely outcome. A draw is a substantial alternative at roughly one-third probability, and Akron’s only prior meeting with CSKA was a win. The projection would be wrong if Akron’s home scoring improves sharply beyond their 0.25-per-game rate, or if CSKA’s away attack fails to produce even the modest 0.5 goals per game they have managed so far.