AEK AthensvsLevski Sofia

AEK Athens host Levski Sofia at Allwyn Arena in a UEFA Champions League fixture. The two sides met eight days ago and played out a goalless draw. The model assigns the home side a 73.2% win probability, making an AEK Athens victory the most likely result.

AEK Athens have no league table data available. In their last three home matches they have two wins and one defeat, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Their recent four-match run is a draw, two wins and a loss, with an average of two goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game.

Levski Sofia also have no league table data. In their last three away matches they have one win and two draws, averaging 1.33 goals scored and one conceded. Their recent five-match form shows four wins and a draw, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and none conceded in that stretch.

Only one meeting is on record between these sides, an 0-0 draw on 18 August 2026. That match produced no goals, and the sample is too small to draw any firm conclusions from the head-to-head data.

AEK Athens' home form over their last three games at Allwyn Arena shows a win rate of 66.7%, with a strong average goal difference. Levski Sofia's away record is more modest: one win in three, with a neutral goal difference. The venue split aligns with the model's clear preference for the hosts.

Both teams arrive with eight days of rest since their last competitive outing, so neither carries a short-turnaround disadvantage. The main factor is the model's strong assessment of AEK Athens' attacking output at home, though the recent goalless draw between the sides shows that Levski Sofia can keep the scoreline tight.

The Poisson model projects a 2-0 home win, with expected goals of 2.13 for AEK Athens and 0.59 for Levski Sofia. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0. The model gives a 75.4% chance of at least two total goals, and a 48.2% probability of a home victory by two or more goals. Confidence is medium.

The data points decisively to an AEK Athens victory, with the model assigning them a 73.2% win probability and a projected 2-0 scoreline. Levski Sofia's unbeaten recent run and the goalless draw in the last meeting are the main counterpoints, but the model's margin outlook strongly favours the hosts.